Gold Falls to Two-Week Low Amid Fears of Fed Rate Hike and U.S.-Iran Tensions

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Gold dropped to a two-week low on September 1 amid rising concerns over Fed policy and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Spot gold traded near $1,443 per ounce as hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole fueled expectations of rate hikes. The Fear & Greed Index reflected heightened investor anxiety. Rising oil prices and military threats from Trump toward Iran further contributed to market unease.
FxStreet reports—On the morning of September 1 in Asian trading, spot gold traded around $4,443 per ounce, hovering near a two-week low, as hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Walsh at last Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium, coupled with escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and a sharp rise in oil prices that intensified inflation concerns and elevated expectations for rate hikes.
CoinMarketCap APP reports — On Tuesday (September 1, Beijing time), early in the Asian session, spot gold traded around $4,443per ounce, hovering near a two-week low, as hawkish remarks by the Fed Chair last Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium, coupled with escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and a sharp rise in oil prices that intensified inflation concerns and raised expectations for rate hikes; U.S. crude oil rose, trading around $86.36 per barrel, as the U.S. and Iran resumed military strikes: after the U.S. targeted Iranian launchers on Larak Island, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard launched missiles at two U.S. air bases in Jordan, prompting Trump to vow “a heavy blow.”

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Focus on the day’s key events



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Stock market


U.S. stocks weakened on Monday, the last trading day of August, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.70% to 53,185.90, the S&P 500 dropping 0.33% to 7,686.14, and the Nasdaq declining 0.12% to 26,370.89. However, all three indices posted monthly gains, with the Nasdaq leading the gains supported by AI investment themes, while the Dow achieved its fifth consecutive monthly rise. Market sentiment was pressured primarily by renewed airstrikes between the U.S. and Iran, which drove crude oil prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns and pushing up bond yields, as investors continued to digest the hawkish remarks made by Federal Reserve Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium.

The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September has exceeded 65%, with strategists noting that failing to hike rates at that time could trigger a strong market reaction.

On the sector front, energy stocks led gains, boosted by rising oil prices, with Halliburton and Valero Energy both up 1.9%. The utilities sector underperformed most sharply due to the California Senate bill’s failure to effectively address wildfire liability compensation, causing Pacific Gas & Electric to plunge 20.1%, its largest single-day drop in over six years. Among individual stocks, GameStop rose 2.9% after the company decided to use existing cash to fund part of its debt exchange transaction rather than issue new shares.

Gold market


Gold prices fell on Monday, hovering near a two-week low, primarily due to hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Powell at last Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium, coupled with a sharp rise in oil prices that intensified inflation concerns and raised expectations for rate hikes.

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Spot gold fell 0.16% to $4,448.56 per ounce, touching its lowest level since August 19 during the session, but gold still posted a monthly gain of 9.94%, marking its best monthly performance since January.

Stone X's senior market strategist noted that rising interest rates, higher inflation expectations, continued upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar have collectively exerted downward pressure on gold prices. Meanwhile, oil prices rose following U.S. strikes on an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz, with escalating geopolitical tensions further intensifying inflation concerns.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders' probability of a September rate hike has risen from approximately 36% before Walsh's remarks to about 65%. The market is closely watching the upcoming ADP employment report and non-farm payrolls data later this week for further clues.

Spot silver rose 0.28% to $66.55 per ounce, with an August gain of 15.48%, having touched its highest level since mid-June last Friday.

Oil market


Oil prices rose at Monday's close, with Brent crude up 2.79% to $90.71 per barrel, and US crude up 3.44% to $86.31 per barrel. During trading, Brent crude reached as high as $91.50 per barrel, the highest level since August 25, primarily due to renewed military strikes between the U.S. and Iran. After the U.S. attacked Iranian launchers on Larak Island, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard launched missiles at two U.S. Air Force bases in Jordan. In response, Trump vowed to “hit them hard.”

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The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, now entering its sixth month, has significantly heightened market concerns over global supply disruptions. Meanwhile, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve decreased by approximately 3.1 million barrels last week to 286.6 million barrels, and the number of tracked vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to just five per day. Analysts at Gelber & Associates note that direct military engagements have forced traders to reprice short-term supply risk premiums, though some Gulf crude continues to flow through the strait, partially restraining price gains.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bentsen said the sanctions aim to pressure Iran back to the negotiating table, while Trump stated that crude oil obtained under the agreement with Venezuela will be used to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is near its lowest level in 44 years, potentially easing some supply concerns.

Forex


The U.S. dollar edged lower in quiet trading on Monday, with the U.S. Dollar Index falling 0.27% to 99.40, as markets shifted focus to the upcoming U.S. August employment data due Friday, following Federal Reserve Chair Powell's hawkish remarks last week.

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Federal funds futures traders have raised their probability estimate for a September rate hike from around 35% before Walsh's remarks to 65%. Survey data suggests only 55,000 new jobs were added in August, and strategists note that if employment declines for two consecutive months, the Fed would lack justification for a rate hike; meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index recorded its second consecutive monthly decline amid bets on currency depreciation triggered by the U.S. Treasury repurchase program.

The euro rose 0.27% to $1.1615, and the pound increased 0.07% to $1.3544, both rising for a second consecutive month.

The USD/JPY fell 0.23% to 159.73, as Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed confidence that the Japanese government and central bank would take measures to strengthen the yen and hinted at a high likelihood of an interest rate hike in September; additionally, rising tensions in the Gulf region pushed oil prices higher, and Wally noted on Monday at the G20 meeting that a global investment boom is helping to reverse the excess savings situation.

International News


Iranian military: Will not tolerate any act of aggression

On August 31 local time, the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces issued a statement declaring that, while respecting the national sovereignty of its neighbors, Iran will not tolerate any act of aggression and will respond to such actions with even stronger measures. The statement noted that although several countries in the region have officially declared they will not allow aggressive U.S. forces to use their territory to attack Iran, and despite prior warnings from Iran, U.S. forces continue to use these countries’ territories to strike Iranian military facilities. The statement emphasized that U.S. forces have no choice but to withdraw from the region, and those facilitating U.S. aggression against Iran should understand that all branches of the Iranian Armed Forces will fight side by side to crush and eliminate any source of aggression. (CCTV News)

Survey: Trump's approval rating remains at a historic low of 33%

Polls show President Trump’s approval rating remains at 33%, the lowest in his political career. Public dissatisfaction is primarily focused on the Iran war and the cost of living: 71% of respondents disapprove of Trump’s handling of the cost of living issue, and only 36% of the public approve of the war. With the November midterm elections approaching, 46% of Democratic voters say their likelihood to vote is very strong, compared to 31% of Republican voters. Among independent voters, 36% lean toward supporting Democratic congressional candidates, while 22% lean toward Republican candidates.

Finance ministers of Russia and the U.S. held a rare meeting during the G20 summit to discuss bilateral financial cooperation

According to a statement from the Russian government, Russian Finance Minister Siluanov met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent during the G20 meeting in Asheville, North Carolina. The statement said that officials from both countries discussed bilateral financial cooperation and collaboration within the G20 framework. This marked Siluanov’s first in-person attendance at a G20 meeting since Russian President Putin launched a military operation against Ukraine in 2022. The talks represented a rare high-level engagement between U.S. and Russian economic teams. Relations between the U.S. and Russia remain strained due to the war in Ukraine and comprehensive Western sanctions imposed on Russia. Siluanov’s attendance at this week’s G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Asheville drew opposition from European officials. German Finance Minister Klingbeil stated that he and his counterparts refused to take the traditional group photo alongside Siluanov.

The Israeli Prime Minister said he spent a thousand hours on TV shows to urge the U.S. to strike Iran.

On a program aired by Israel's Channel 14 on August 30 local time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that he has opposed Iran for nearly 40 years, and it took a long time to convince the United States to also oppose Iran—something he achieved by appearing on U.S. television programs for nearly 1,000 hours, thereby exerting influence in the U.S. On August 31, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi shared a video clip of the program on social media, mocking Netanyahu as a "hypocrite": publicly boasting in Hebrew about how he tricked the U.S. into fighting for Israel, while lavishing praise on the U.S. president in English—"what a cunning man." (CCTV International News)

U.S. Treasury Secretary says Iran's economy doesn't have to collapse

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bentsen stated on August 31 that U.S. sanctions are exerting economic pressure on the Iranian regime, prompting it to take military action. Bentsen said the U.S. government will continue to apply pressure, emphasizing that Iran’s economy “does not need to collapse,” but the regime must “regain its sanity.” In an interview, Bentsen noted that the goal of U.S. economic pressure is to create conditions that encourage Iran to come to the negotiating table. He believes that the U.S. “economic isolation campaign,” combined with blockade measures, has left Iran isolated and without support, compelling it to seek an agreement.

Domestic News


The MSCI China Index adjustment takes effect today, with 33 stocks added.

After the market close on August 31, the quarterly rebalancing of the MSCI China Index took effect, with 33 stocks added and 32 removed. Previously, on August 12 local time, MSCI announced the results of its August 2026 index review, with the changes effective after the market close on August 31. In this adjustment, MSCI China Index added 33 new stocks, including Zhipu and Dingtai High-Tech, while removing 32 stocks such as Vanke A and Yonghui Superstores. The 33 newly added stocks span multiple cutting-edge sectors, including semiconductors, AI, pharmaceuticals, new materials, and precision manufacturing. Notably, 10 companies from the STAR Market have been newly included in the MSCI China Index, with seven of them coming from the semiconductor supply chain, covering the entire spectrum of chip design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, equipment, and materials—highlighting the growing appeal of China’s hard technology sector in global capital markets. (CCTV Finance)

Some high-end mining power companies have orders booked up to three years in advance.

In August, the interim financial reports of China’s leading domestic AI chip manufacturers were released in quick succession. Last Friday, Biren Technology reported revenue growth of nearly 20 times. Meanwhile, other top companies such as Cambricon and Moore Threads also achieved substantial revenue increases. This surge in performance reflects the severe shortage of high-end computing power. Currently, the entire supply chain for high-end computing power is experiencing widespread scarcity, with some companies’ order backlogs extending up to three years—illustrating the intense market demand. Not only are resources at the downstream intelligent computing centers in short supply, but midstream system integration segments are also seeing a flood of orders. Multiple computing power service providers report that their order volumes have maintained rapid growth for two consecutive years. One company noted that its customer base has grown approximately tenfold over the past year and a half. At the upstream chip level, surging demand has driven both volume and pricing higher. Industry research data indicates that domestic demand for AI chips in 2026 is projected to reach about 4 million units, while actual deliveries are expected to be around 3 million, leaving a capacity gap of over one million units. Industry experts generally agree that domestic chips are currently in a strong upward cycle in the high-end AI chip market. Recently, multiple Chinese chip companies have released their financial reports, all showing signs of collective explosive growth. (CCTV Finance)

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Increase procurement of services such as large models, agents, and tokens

The Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on launching a special action to cultivate artificial intelligence application service providers. It will organize the opening of a number of real-world scenarios, actively attract service providers to conduct practical implementations, promote technological R&D and transformation of achievements by service providers, develop benchmark solutions, and generate a demonstrative effect. It will explore increasing procurement of large models, intelligent agents, tokens, and other services through models such as first purchase and first use, as well as risk compensation, to enhance the quality and efficiency of industry adoption of AI models and intelligence. Regions with the necessary conditions will establish and improve comprehensive service systems for “going global,” leveraging cooperation mechanisms and platforms such as the Belt and Road Initiative, BRICS, and China-ASEAN to promote the overseas deployment of high-quality AI application projects. (MIIT)

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Support service providers in strengthening connections with national computing power network hub nodes and leveraging policy tools such as "computing power vouchers" to reduce computing costs

The Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice on launching a special action to cultivate artificial intelligence application service providers. Support service providers in strengthening connections with national computing power network hub nodes, national computing power interconnection nodes, and China’s computing power platforms, and leverage policy tools such as “computing power vouchers” to reduce computing costs. Optimize intelligent programming tools to enhance software supply capabilities. Open interfaces or provide trial access to results from initiatives such as “Model-Data Resonance” and “Industrial Data Foundation,” including scenarios, data, models, and agents. Encourage universities and vocational schools to co-build training bases with leading service providers to systematically cultivate composite application talents who understand business, master models, know security, and can deliver solutions. Encourage service providers to establish Frontline Deployment Engineer (FDE) teams to be embedded at user sites and ensure successful scenario implementation. (MIIT)
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