GLP-1 Weight-Loss Drugs Reshape Consumer Spending Patterns

GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are changing consumer purchases, benefiting fitness and health businesses while forcing food, restaurant and clothing companies to adjust. Gallup estimated that roughly 38 million people in the US were actively using the drugs as of June. PwC estimates that around 5% of UK adults use the drugs. More than 200 listed companies outside healthcare discussed weight-loss drugs during earnings calls in the three months through September, more than twice the year-earlier number. Worldpanel by Numerator estimates that current adoption has reduced UK grocery spending by £780 million annually.

GLP-1s are expected to become more widely available as pills, with lower manufacturing costs and cheaper generics anticipated as US and European semaglutide patents expire in the early 2030s. A June PwC UK survey found that 27% of GLP-1 users intended to spend more on fitness, while 5% intended to spend less. PureGym, Planet Fitness and The Gym Group have increased space for strength and functional training as users seek to counter muscle and bone-density loss. PureGym has introduced training programmes for personal trainers and hopes to combine discounted memberships with weight-loss prescriptions. Planet Fitness chief Colleen Keating said in August that the partnership with GLP-1 prescriber Ro ranked among the chain's most successful and frequently used membership benefits.

Boston Consulting Group's survey of 1,500 users found supplement spending 20% above non-users' spending, led by protein for muscle loss, fibre for digestion and collagen for sagging skin. Unilever Wellness head Jostein Solheim said rapid weight loss with GLP-1s intensifies physical stresses, including hair loss and dehydration. Galderma has experienced strong injectable demand after publicising trials addressing facial sagging; Sculptra, the company's leading injectable among weight-loss drug users, costs upwards of £500 in London. L'Oréal chief Nicolas Hieronimus said this summer that the company was developing serums and treatments addressing sagging skin and hair loss.

Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu calculated in January that a 10% average weight reduction among 178 Boeing 737 Max 8 passengers would reduce take-off weight by 2%. Kahyaoglu estimated that such reductions could save the four large US carriers about $580 million annually. However, lower sales of high-margin snacks, soft drinks and alcohol could offset fuel savings, while airlines may use the released weight capacity for profitable cargo.

A Cornell University and Numerator study tracking GLP-1 users for three years found first-six-month spending declines of 9% for sweet bakery products and 11% for savoury snacks. Businesses including chocolate makers and burger chains are promoting premium products to protect profits as customers buy less. The Magnum Ice Cream Company is concentrating on smaller portions and protein-enriched ice cream. The International Dairy Foods Association reported that US yoghurt sales volume rose 6.7% year-on-year in August, with only cottage cheese growing faster.

However, the Cornell study found that alcohol spending fell only 1% during users' first six months, compared with a 5.3% decline across groceries. Diageo chief strategy officer Hannah Brooks said in August that GLP-1 users spent 2% less on spirits, 4% less on beer and 5% less on wine. Brooks said at least 50% of users still visited pubs or bars weekly, with those going out tending to favour lower-calorie, lower-volume spirits. Barclays analyst Laurence Whyatt said a third of respondents in the bank's regular wholesaler and retailer survey observed GLP-1 users buying fewer but more expensive spirits bottles.

Cornell researchers tracking household purchases from July 2022 through September 2024 found an 8% decline in fast-food and limited-service restaurant spending after a household member began GLP-1 treatment. Domino's Pizza reported below-inflation sales growth this month for the three months through September as customers ordered fewer items. Citi analyst Jon Tower said GLP-1s likely contributed, although Domino's attributed the pattern to financial pressure on consumers. McDonald's is developing protein bowls, grilled chicken and egg bites, while McDonald's USA president Skye Anderson argued that protein-rich meals and flexible portions offered opportunities. KFC introduced smaller chicken and fries portions in the US in October, with prices starting at $3.49. Tower said GLP-1s have affected individual eating occasions more than social outings, leaving takeaway and fast food more exposed than sit-down restaurants, particularly fine dining. RSM UK's Saxon Moseley said UK restaurants were redesigning menus around protein and small plates, while reduced high-margin orders could pressure restaurants to maintain or increase prices. Consultant Daniel Angerer warned that smaller servings could prompt shrinkflation accusations because customers expect lower prices even when restaurants save little.

PwC research found that almost three-quarters of active GLP-1 users reported a substantial clothing-size change. Macy's CEO Tony Spring said in September that plus-size clothing sales were weak while most other apparel categories remained healthy. Impact Analytics expects structural decline for XL-focused brands as excess inventory forces price reductions. PwC research found that some users postpone clothing purchases during weight loss but forecast a strongly positive spending outlook for clothing. PwC US consumer markets industry leader Ali Furman wrote in June that changing body perceptions often encourage purchases of higher-quality, more expensive clothing. Alan David Custom owner Alan Horowitz estimates that weight-loss drugs have reduced revenue by around 10% to 12%, with free lifetime alterations adding to the tailoring burden. Horowitz said unpredictable weight changes among grooms have required provisional garments between fittings before tailors cut the final suits.