BlockBeats report, October 22: According to a Goldman Sachs report, the global average cost of crude oil transportation has risen from approximately $3 per barrel a year ago to over $20, with major Middle East routes exceeding $35 per barrel. War risks triggered by the Strait of Hormuz crisis, ship-to-ship transfers, rising fuel costs, and reduced tanker scheduling efficiency are collectively driving up crude oil transportation expenses, creating new pressure on energy prices.
Goldman Sachs estimates that the war risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz adds approximately $7 per barrel to transportation costs, $4 to ship-to-ship transfers, $4 to higher marine fuel costs, $3 to reduced tanker scheduling efficiency and route diversions, and $2 to the reduced availability of Iranian tankers.
Rising transportation costs have also widened regional crude oil price differentials, with the Brent-WTI spread recently reaching about $14 per barrel, significantly above the typical level of around $5. Goldman Sachs noted that Asian refiners are particularly vulnerable, with some European refiners already reducing crude oil imports and processing volumes.
Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil prices to fall to around $90 per barrel by the end of this year and average $80 per barrel in 2027. However, if transportation, insurance, and refining costs remain elevated, prices for refined products such as gasoline and diesel may stay high even if crude oil benchmarks decline, further intensifying energy inflation pressures.