Global chip giants raise prices; domestic analog chip manufacturers face a golden opportunity

According to Titanium Media, the semiconductor industry chain continues to rise, with analog chips and power semiconductors leading the gains. Lihe Micro surged 20% to its daily limit, following previous limit-up performances by GalaxyCore, MinChip, AscentChip, WFSC, and Hoshine Materials. Multiple other stocks, including Full-Well Micro, Ankai Micro, and ChipSky, rose over 10%.

On the news front, nearly 20 analog and power semiconductor companies worldwide are set to initiate a new round of price increases on July 1. According to reports, prices for AI server, data center-specific power management chips, and high-voltage signal chain analog chips will rise by 15% to 25%, while prices for industrial automation and energy storage isolation chips will increase by 10% to 15%.

This price increase is not merely a unilateral cost pass-through by a single manufacturer, but rather a synchronized large-scale price adjustment by leading overseas suppliers—including Texas Instruments (TI), Infineon, onsemi, and STMicroelectronics—across their high-growth product lines such as AI and automotive-grade chips, all within the same time window. Among them, Infineon, onsemi, and STMicroelectronics have each implemented their second price adjustment this year, while Texas Instruments has executed its fourth price adjustment in the past 12 months.

Lead times from overseas manufacturers have generally lengthened, and spot market shortages or quota-based allocation have become industry norms.

On one side, overseas giants are raising prices, limiting production, and extending delivery cycles; on the other, domestic computing power, energy storage, and industrial control terminals are being forced to seek domestic alternatives. A golden window for domestic analog chip substitution—driven by supply-demand gaps, price mismatches, and a reshaped production landscape—is set to fully open in the second half of 2026.

However, not all players benefit from this window: only domestic manufacturers with their own or stable 8-inch foundry capacity, completed certifications for AI servers or energy storage products, and a full portfolio of signal chain and power management solutions will reap the dual benefits; small and medium-sized enterprises focused solely on design, lacking stable wafer supply, and limited to low-end consumer markets may continue to face order fragmentation and profit pressure.

This collective price adjustment carries significant industry symbolism, differing from the passive price cuts seen over the past two years during the consumer electronics downturn. This round of price increases by major overseas manufacturers is underpinned by three rigid factors—demand, supply, and cost—essentially leveraging supply-demand imbalances to reclaim pricing power and indirectly creating room for domestic manufacturers to gain market share.

Price increases show clear tiering, with AI server power chips leading the surge, primarily driven by an exponential increase in chip value per unit due to changes in computing architecture.

The new-generation Rubin Ultra high-density GPU cabinet exceeds 300 kW power consumption, compelling the traditional 48/54 V low-voltage DC architecture to gradually upgrade to 800 V high-voltage DC (HVDC); high-end AI servers using the 800 V power solution see a significant increase in total value due to their high-voltage PMICs, high-current DrMOS, and fully isolated signal chain chips.

The convergence of two major stable growth markets creates demand resonance: On one hand, large-scale photovoltaic bases and accompanying energy storage projects are entering a concentrated phase of delivery and installation, leading to continued tight supply of isolation drivers and high-voltage MOSFETs for bidirectional energy storage PCS. On the other hand, 800V high-voltage platforms in new energy vehicles are increasingly penetrating the market, with automotive-grade high-voltage IGBTs and SiC power modules already pre-allocated by vehicle manufacturers; the delivery lead times for mainstream suppliers have been scheduled through early 2027.

The three high-growth sectors—AI, new energy vehicles, and energy storage—are expanding simultaneously, continuously squeezing the 8-inch mature wafer capacity traditionally relied upon by analog and power chips. In contrast, demand in traditional consumer electronics such as smartphones and white goods remains weak. Leading overseas manufacturers have responded with differentiated pricing strategies, maintaining prices for consumer-grade analog chips while only increasing prices for scarce categories related to computing power, industrial control, and energy storage. This growing divergence in sector vitality further intensifies downstream customers’ motivation to switch suppliers.

Analog and power chips heavily rely on specialized BCD processes at 0.13μm–0.35μm, which are produced on 8-inch wafer lines. However, leading overseas wafer foundries are systematically reducing their self-owned mature 8-inch foundry capacity: TSMC plans to transfer 80% of its 8-inch foundry business to World Semiconductor over several years through equipment, orders, and technology shifts, while Samsung is reallocating its 8-inch resources toward advanced nodes and CoWoS packaging. TrendForce estimates that global effective 8-inch wafer capacity will contract by 2.4% year-over-year in 2026.

Overseas IDM companies also face significant delays in expanding production: Infineon and Texas Instruments' new high-voltage power production lines will not fully ramp up until 2027; the complete customer certification process for newly developed automotive-grade and AI computing power chips from sampling to mass supply is lengthy, making it difficult to effectively alleviate the short-term industry supply-demand gap.

Rigid production capacity constraints on the supply side have given overseas chip leaders ample justification to repeatedly raise prices on computing power, energy storage, and automotive-grade components in short supply.

Industry supply chain data shows that Texas Instruments (TI) has completed four rounds of price adjustments over the past 12 months: AI data center-specific power management chips and high-voltage signal chain products have seen price increases of 15%-25%, industrial-grade products have risen by 10%-15%, while entry-level consumer components remain unchanged. This differentiated pricing strategy directly highlights the shortage of high-end production capacity.

Infineon will implement its second price increase of the year effective July 1, raising prices by 10%-20% for medium- and low-voltage MOSFETs, automotive-grade power devices, and selected IGBTs/PMICs. Spot and small-order customers will be subject to the full new pricing with no negotiation or grace period.

Lead times clearly reflect industry supply constraints: Previously, standard MOSFETs and rectifier devices had lead times of only 8–12 weeks; now, mainstream products have been uniformly extended to over 30 weeks. Lead times for automotive-grade IGBTs, high-voltage power modules for AI servers, and silicon carbide devices have been further extended to over 40 weeks.

Terminal power manufacturers, cloud providers, and energy storage equipment suppliers cannot wait for delivery cycles of nearly a year; domestic alternatives have become a necessity.

This round of price increases by domestic mature wafer foundries began at the end of 2025, when SMIC率先 raised its 8-inch BCD process fabrication fees by 10% in December 2025, followed shortly after by Hua Hong Semiconductor; the pricing trend spread across the entire industry through 2026.

The officially announced price adjustment details for domestic contract manufacturers are as follows: SMIC is raising prices across its mature nodes by 5%-10%, with a separate 10% increase for its 8-inch BCD process; Hua Hong Semiconductor is increasing prices for its 8-inch processes by 5%-15% and plans to raise prices for its 12-inch mature nodes by 10% in the second half of 2026; and NJRC is implementing a uniform 10% price increase across all its contract manufacturing services effective June 1, 2026.

The confidence to raise prices stems directly from high capacity utilization rates. Data shows that SMIC's capacity utilization rate reached 93.1% in the first quarter of 2026, with its 8-inch production lines operating at full capacity long-term; Hua Hong's capacity utilization rate reached an even higher 91.7%, indicating overcapacity, with orders already booked through the second half of 2026.

Compared to the previous semiconductor cycle’s domestic substitution, the breakthrough in analog chips in 2026 boasts three structural misalignment advantages, which are the key differentiators of this window of opportunity.

According to SEMI’s "2026 200mm Fab Outlook Report," China is projected to rank second with a 22% growth rate, serving as the largest contributor to 200mm capacity expansion, with output expected to reach over 1.7 million wafers per month by 2026.

A tiered supply system has formed within the domestic industrial chain: First, IDM-integrated companies (such as CR Micro and Silan Microelectronics) operate their own 8-inch production lines, enabling them to autonomously allocate capacity to prioritize high-demand AI and energy storage product lines, without being constrained by overseas foundry capacity quotas or long lead times.

Second, specialized foundries such as SMIC, Hua Hong, and Jita have deep expertise in BCD processes and continue to receive analog and power chip manufacturing orders transferred from TSMC and Samsung, maintaining consistently high capacity utilization rates.

Third, domestic 8-inch BCD and SiC production lines from China Resources Microelectronics, Silan Microelectronics, Hua Hong, and Jita are scheduled to ramp up gradually from the second half of 2026 through 2027, with a significantly faster domestic expansion pace.

Meanwhile, overseas IDM companies such as Infineon, TI, and onsemi are only at the stage of equipment installation or factory construction for their new 8-inch high-voltage power production lines; significant capacity ramp-up and stable shipments are generally not expected until the end of 2027, with no additional capacity coming online between 2026 and the first half of 2027 to offset the current shortage.

Due to overseas manufacturers being constrained by limited in-house production capacity and reduced outsourced manufacturing resources, they are unable to meet the surge in demand for computing chips. As a result, the stable and sufficient wafer supply from domestic manufacturers has become the top consideration for downstream customers switching their supply chains.

The same production capacity logic is confirmed by secondary market limit-up stocks: Leaguer Micro and Chanxin Semiconductor benefit from long-term, stable manufacturing partnerships with SMIC and Hua Hong, ensuring more stable shipments during periods of wafer scarcity. Leaguer Micro’s in-house chip business simultaneously gains from increased order volumes and price hikes, while Chanxin Semiconductor leverages priority capacity allocation to ensure consistent delivery of chip design services, highlighting its strong cyclical resilience.

After major overseas manufacturers significantly adjusted their prices, the price advantage of domestic analog chips has been further enhanced.

After nearly five years of technological iteration, the performance gap between leading domestic manufacturers and overseas products continues to narrow: SG Micro has launched a 90A DrMOS product with integrated current sensing, primarily targeting AI servers and traditional computing markets; JHWAT has achieved full certification of its VRM (Voltage Regulator Module), eFuse (electronic fuse), and POL (Point-of-Load) products under Intel’s VR14/VR14.Cloud specifications, strongly entering the core power supply segment of AI servers.

The performance and reliability gaps that downstream customers previously worried about have gradually narrowed, and combined with significant advantages in price and lead time, terminal manufacturers' willingness to adopt domestic chips has increased substantially.

Previously, domestic analog chips were primarily concentrated in the low-end consumer electronics market, directly competing with overseas giants. However, during this cycle, leading domestic companies have proactively positioned themselves in high-growth sectors such as computing power, energy storage, and industrial applications, establishing differentiated competition and avoiding the traditional strongholds of overseas manufacturers.

For example, Chipown has achieved a full-chain PMIC product layout for 800V HVDC computing power supplies across primary, secondary, and tertiary sides; Jiahuaite and SG Micro’s high-voltage power solutions cover the backend power supply section of AI servers; all three companies’ products have been integrated into the Ascend and domestic cloud provider system supply chains. Yangjie Technology’s silicon carbide power devices have been certified by leading server power supply manufacturers such as Delta and Lite-On, indirectly entering NVIDIA’s computing cabinet supply chain.

In contrast, overseas giants have dispersed resources across consumer, automotive, computing power, and industrial sectors, with production capacity prioritized for large clients. Meanwhile, domestic manufacturers focus intensely on high-growth emerging markets, enabling faster product iteration and quicker capture of market share in niche segments.

Amid the confluence of three cycles—overseas power simulation chip price increases, tight capacity in 8-inch mature wafer production, and accelerated domestic substitution downstream—the domestic simulation chip industry has experienced significant tiered differentiation: The first tier includes IDM and full-stack power solution providers such as CR Micro, Silan Microelectronics, Saint邦股份, and Joulwatt, which operate their own 8-inch production lines. Their comprehensive portfolios in computing and energy storage, along with certifications from leading customers, enable them to simultaneously benefit from rising prices, increased capacity release, and growing domestic market share.

The second tier consists of specialized companies such as Lihé Micro, Minxin Semiconductor, Ankai Micro, and Canxin Semiconductor, which lack their own wafer fabrication capacity but have secured long-term production agreements with domestic foundries. Leveraging technological barriers in their niche markets, these companies are well-positioned to capture order transfers from overseas, resulting in stronger short-term earnings potential and greater appeal to secondary market investors.

The third tier consists of mid-to-small-sized consumer chip design companies focused on mobile phones and small home appliances. The consumer electronics segment offers no overseas chip price increase benefits, faces inventory overhang, and is characterized by intense price competition. Coupled with an inability to secure capacity in mature process technologies, these companies struggle to enter the high-growth sectors of computing power and energy storage. Their stock price increases are largely driven by sector-wide trends rather than fundamental strength, and their long-term earnings growth prospects remain weak.

However, the opportunity created by price increases from major overseas manufacturers is not permanent; potential risks on the industrial side will cap the long-term growth of domestic manufacturers’ market share, making this a critical variable that companies and investors must remain vigilant about.

First, the 8-inch power production lines planned by TI, Infineon, and onsemi are set to come online en masse in 2027. Coupled with TSMC’s gradual shift of its mature process capacity to Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation, the global supply gap for 8-inch wafers is expected to ease by the second half of 2027. This will simultaneously reduce delivery lead times and pricing pressures from overseas manufacturers, lowering downstream customers’ incentive to switch to domestic chips and narrowing the window of opportunity for substitution.

Second, Texas Instruments offers over 80,000 devices, with a product portfolio covering all types of analog applications across the industry; in contrast, China’s leading platform company, SG Micro, currently offers only around 6,000 available part numbers, with insufficient product tiering and coverage of specialized specifications.

In the most technologically challenging segments—such as ultra-high-precision industrial signal chains, high-end multiphase controllers for AI servers, and high-security automotive-grade isolation chips—there remains a clear gap in performance and reliability; domestically produced products can currently only match and substitute mid-range standardized offerings.

The highest-end VRM controllers and high-precision operational amplifiers for AI servers still heavily rely on overseas suppliers; only mid-range models can be substantially substituted in the short term, and breakthroughs in the high-end market will require several more years of R&D accumulation.

Third, the primary driver of this price surge is the expansion of AI servers. If global cloud providers and AI companies slow their capital expenditures, demand for power chips for computing will quickly cool, reversing the supply-demand dynamics in this high-growth sector. Compared to the long-term, stable growth in electric vehicles and energy storage, the computing sector is more cyclical, and companies solely reliant on AI business face higher earnings volatility risk.

High profits in the current industry are attracting significant capital investment into 8-inch analog production lines. Over the next few years, domestic新增 mature process capacity will come online en masse. If demand growth fails to keep pace with this capacity expansion, the analog chip industry may soon experience price competition, squeezing corporate profit margins.

In summary, the surge in overseas chip prices has created a window of opportunity in the mid-market segment, while high-end markets still face technological barriers; domestic manufacturers must seize this moment to quickly establish their position.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Silicon Carbon Variables," authored by Guan Er.