Mini Program: Daily Investment Bank / Institutional Insights Summary
Overseas
1. Russell Investments: Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Bring Good News to the Fed
BeiChen Lin, Senior Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, stated in a report that, under the company’s base case scenario, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady this year. He said prior to the release of Friday’s U.S. employment report: “However, if job growth significantly exceeds market expectations—such as more than double the forecast—while inflation remains stubbornly high, this could prompt the Fed to further consider raising rates. Taking into account all the labor market data due to be released this week, we expect the job market to remain at a ‘moderate’ pace, neither overheating nor cooling down. This would be good news for the Fed.” Russell Investments believes that U.S. Treasury yields across all maturities offer attractive investment value.
2. Goldman Sachs warns: Prepare for lower global stock market returns over the next year
Recently, in an interview, Goldman Sachs’ Chief Global Equity Strategist noted that stock market gains over the next 12 months are expected to be more modest. “Over the past year and so far this year, the S&P 500 and other global equity markets have delivered remarkable returns,” said Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs’ Chief Global Equity Strategist. “Investors have already accumulated substantial gains. Returns from here are expected to be lower.”
3. JPMorgan: U.S. Treasury yields rising to 5% could pose risks to the stock market
Grace Peters, Head of Global Investment Strategy at J.P. Morgan, stated that rising bond yields pose a key risk to global equities as markets enter one of their weakest Septembers on record. Peters expects further upside potential for U.S. and European equities this year, but warns that a 5% to 8% correction remains possible as risk events such as the U.S. midterm elections in November approach. Such a pullback would be healthy, rather than indicative of structural market deterioration. Rising bond yields have become a primary concern for equity investors. Markets are increasingly worried that higher oil prices will fuel inflation, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.8%, nearing the 5% level typically viewed as unfavorable for equities; meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield has risen to its highest level in 19 years. Market participants are increasingly speculating that policymakers will be forced to raise rates, driving yields back to levels seen before U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent expanded repurchase operations to control long-term borrowing costs.
4. Bank of America: The validity of the August upward breakout of the S&P 500 index continues to be confirmed.
In the short term, the technical environment provides support. Paul Chan, a technical analyst at Bank of America, notes that the validity of the S&P 500’s upward breakout in August continues to be confirmed. However, momentum signals have weakened, with the RSI and MACD indicators failing to confirm recent price highs. Seasonal headwinds, election-related uncertainty, and rising short-term yields suggest the market is entering a more pressured phase, with higher volatility risks in September and October, and a potential rebound likely only in November and December. “The index remains firmly above 7,500, maintaining an intact uptrend; however, with yields rising, the market is more likely to enter a consolidation phase rather than accelerate upward.” He sets target levels at 8,000 and 8,234, with a potential high at 8,541. “As long as support at 7,500–7,504 holds, the trend remains biased upward.”
5. ING: BoJ rate hike signals boost the yen, but hawkish Fed expectations remain a constraint
International Dutch Chief Market Strategist Chris Turner said that comments from Haruhiko Kuroda, a hawkish member of the Bank of Japan, provided some support to the yen, but expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve are shifting the dynamics, suggesting that the USD/JPY may remain near 160 to 162 for a longer period. He noted that a 50-basis-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan, or two consecutive hikes, would undoubtedly be a positive signal for the yen. However, he pointed out that Kuroda is one of only a few hawks within the Bank of Japan, so his remarks should not be particularly surprising. If the Bank of Japan raises rates in September, it would itself signal an acceleration in the pace of monetary tightening. International Dutch believes the Bank of Japan may prefer to wait until 2027 to assess domestic consumption before making further decisions. Turner added that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent would not be particularly pleased to see a hawkish Fed negatively impact the yen, but he would also recognize the benefits of the Fed’s independence.
6. ANZ: Copper prices有望 reach a new all-time high early next year
ANZ Bank Group stated that copper prices are poised to reach record highs early next year amid rising concerns over U.S. tariffs, supply challenges at mines, and resilient global demand. Analysts Kumar and Haines, in a report, noted that market speculation that the Trump administration may impose tariffs on copper has driven significant copper supplies into the United States, tightening supply in other regions. Meanwhile, investment in electric vehicles and new energy infrastructure will support copper consumption, while supply faces pressures from reduced copper output in Chile due to El Niño and increased hydropower risks in Brazil.
Domestic
1. CICC: In September, focus on structural opportunities driven by industry momentum.
China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released its September industry allocation research report, highlighting structural opportunities under the theme of improving momentum: (1) The technology growth sector may exhibit divergent performance going forward, requiring careful stock selection: segments related to AI infrastructure, such as optical communications and PCBs, are likely to maintain strong high momentum this year and could rebound after recent underperformance. However, many companies in semiconductors and computing power still require close evaluation of the alignment between fundamentals and valuations. Numerous innovative drug companies are entering the clinical data validation phase, warranting bottom-up attention. (2) Considering geopolitical dynamics and the position in the capacity cycle, focus on sectors with improving earnings and better supply-demand fundamentals, such as construction machinery, power grid equipment, and petrochemicals. The recovery in purely domestic-demand industries remains relatively slow and requires further observation.
2. CICC: Sees strong growth potential in the optical communication and thermal management sector amid continuous expansion of AI computing clusters.
China International Capital Corporation’s research report highlights strong growth potential in the optical communication thermal management sector amid the ongoing expansion of AI computing clusters, recommending focused attention on VC heat spreaders, liquid-cooled cages, and liquid cooling opportunities for co-packaged switches. As optical module speeds increase, power consumption per module continues to rise, pushing traditional air cooling toward its thermal limits; the adoption rate of high-efficiency cooling solutions such as VC heat spreaders and liquid-cooled cages is expected to accelerate significantly. The industry benefits from both the beta of growing optical communication demand and the alpha driven by rising liquid cooling penetration and increased unit value. Meanwhile, the evolution of new packaging technologies such as NPO/CPO/XPO is likely to extend cooling requirements from the module level to the system level, further expanding market potential. On the supply chain side, optical module thermal management manufacturers leverage China’s globally leading optical module industrial cluster, gaining advantages in customer collaboration, rapid response, cost control, and precision manufacturing. Optical module cage manufacturers, already integrated into the supply chains of leading international connectors during the air-cooled cage era, are well-positioned to upgrade their products and increase value by leveraging existing customer relationships in the liquid-cooling era.
3. CITIC Construction Investment: Portfolio allocation for September can be centered around three main themes.
According to CITIC Construction Investment’s research report, portfolio allocation in September can be structured around three main themes: Defensive core holdings—low-volatility assets such as dividends and high-yield stocks, along with gold to hedge against stagflation; Structural offensive plays—A-share resource commodities and hard tech sectors with strong earnings certainty; U.S. equity focus shifting away from crowded hardware bottleneck names toward cloud providers, software applications, leading computing power companies, and semiconductor equipment. In other words, dollar liquidity-sensitive assets may present opportunities in September. Caution advised: Avoid chasing long-duration Chinese bonds, and maintain a cautious outlook on upside potential in domestic demand-driven sectors. The implied allocation priority ranking is as follows: Gold, copper, and resource-related dividend assets take precedence; U.S. software applications, cloud providers, and computing power equipment follow; long-dated bonds, domestic consumption stocks, and aluminum among commodities warrant a more cautious stance.
4. Huatai Securities: Recommend prioritizing areas with higher earnings visibility.
Huatai Securities released a strategy research report stating that, in terms of asset allocation, the market is shifting from an expansion narrative to a repricing of execution capability and earnings quality. Short-term tightening of liquidity expectations may suppress valuations. During this earnings vacuum period, attention should be paid to whether new catalysts and order validations emerge on the industrial side, as well as the FOMC statement in September. It is recommended to prioritize sectors with higher earnings visibility, such as telecommunications equipment, semiconductor equipment/materials, and PCBs, followed by potential repricing opportunities in AI applications.
5. CITIC Securities: Maintains its view that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in September this year
China Securities Research Report states that the U.S. July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month, with core CPI increasing 0.2% month-over-month, both in line with market expectations. The modest monthly increase in U.S. CPI in July was primarily driven by a rebound in core goods and a pickup in core services inflation, partially offset by a second consecutive month of declining energy prices. The year-over-year PPI growth rate in the U.S. continued to ease, indicating that upward risks to overall U.S. inflation expectations remain contained. Although the outlook for the Iran-Israel conflict remains highly uncertain, posing potential upside risks to oil prices and U.S. inflation, overall inflationary pressures are expected to remain manageable, supporting the view that the Fed will hold rates steady at its September meeting.
6. CITIC Construction Investment: Banking spread stabilizes, dividends improve—favor stocks balancing fundamentals and dividend characteristics
According to a research report from CITIC Construction Investment, listed banks are expected to achieve high single-digit revenue growth in the first half of 2026, with stable low single-digit profit growth, signaling an improving trend. Credit growth is projected to be in the high single digits; under the backdrop of slowing asset-side declines and optimized funding costs, net interest margins are stabilizing marginally, accelerating net interest income. Non-interest income is forecast to grow steadily at low single digits, reflecting an improving trend in core revenue-generating capabilities. Other non-interest income shows some divergence, primarily due to differing decisions on realizing unrealized gains. Asset quality appears stable, with real estate risks accelerating cleanup, while retail risks continue to emerge naturally. Some banks are seizing the window of opportunity—before policy support recedes and financial resources remain relatively abundant—to accelerate the clearance of real estate risks, enhancing future earnings flexibility. Several banks have finalized their interim dividend plans, with state-owned large banks uniformly raising their dividend payout ratios by one percentage point, further enhancing their dividend appeal. Looking ahead for the full year, listed banks’ revenue and profits are expected to sustain their positive momentum, with fundamentals stabilizing. Currently, the banking sector is primarily used as a market hedge; investors are advised to select stocks that combine strong fundamentals, industry leadership, and solid dividend yields.
7. CITIC Securities: AI is reshaping the entry point for investment decision-making, moving from information display to task execution and asset management.
China Securities Research Report states that AI applications in securities are evolving from early-stage simple Q&A to systematically reducing costs in information processing, research comparison, portfolio diagnostics, and post-investment tracking, driving securities platforms to transition from mere market data displays and trading execution portals into platforms for executing investment tasks and managing assets. In the short term, the industry remains in the phase of product validation and scenario penetration; in the medium to long term, competition will shift from “whether a model can be integrated” to “whether investment tasks can be reliably completed, embedded into high-frequency workflows, and closed into commercial loops.” As underlying models gradually become infrastructure, industry barriers will increasingly stem from composite capabilities such as proprietary financial data, productized investment research processes, high-frequency user access points, account and asset holdings, product offerings, and compliance governance. Industry value is expected to concentrate along three pathways: “investment research task entry points—wealth management closed loops—institutional infrastructure.” In terms of investment strategy, allocation should focus on three main themes: decision-making entry points, asset closed loops, and institutional infrastructure. Prioritize financial information platforms with high-frequency investment task access points and strong capabilities in financial data and tool orchestration; pay attention to wealth management platforms that can connect AI insights to securities accounts and client assets; finally, recommend focusing on financial IT companies and leading brokerages benefiting from IT construction demands in the financial sector and excelling in digitalization and wealth management capabilities.
8. CITIC Securities: Seek high-quality, high-growth assets where revenue, profit, cash flow, and capital returns are improving in sync, yet valuations have not yet fully reflected this progress.
According to a research report from CITIC Securities, the H1 2026 financial results indicate that China’s A-share profit cycle has entered an accelerated recovery phase; however, “profit improvement” itself is losing its scarcity. The breadth of demand expansion, the quality of profit recovery, and the extent of market pricing have become key factors for asset selection in the next stage. Currently, resources and technology sectors are leading in momentum, while profit recovery is gradually spreading to traditional industries; however, consumption and manufacturing remain relatively weak. Yet, high growth does not equate to high quality—further validation of the “true nature” of profits is needed. First, in the technology sector, focus should be on whether profits can be converted into cash flow; seek assets where high growth aligns with high profit quality, but do not outright reject those facing cash flow pressure. Second, “anti-cutthroat competition” cannot be judged solely by reduced capital expenditure or price rebounds; it is essential to observe whether supply discipline can further translate into improved profitability, cash flow, and capital returns. Third, under the backdrop of RMB appreciation, exchange losses inevitably impact profit quality; overseas gross margins and pricing power serve as critical indicators for identifying high-quality overseas expansion. Fourth, dividend investing should evolve beyond high dividend yields and high free cash flow to focus on the source and sustainability of dividends, while dynamically uncovering new rationales for dividend generation. On the valuation front, markets have begun to price different qualities of profits differently; in the next stage, priority should be given to identifying high-quality, high-momentum assets where revenue, profits, cash flow, and capital returns are improving in tandem, yet valuations have not yet fully reflected these improvements.
9. CITIC Securities: Competition in video models is shifting toward producible and commercially viable applications; AI-generated dramas are emerging as the first scenario to achieve large-scale consumption.
According to a research report from CITIC Securities, competition in video models is shifting from performance comparison to practical production and commercialization, with AI-generated dramas emerging as the first application scenario to achieve large-scale consumption. Seedance 2.5 enhances content delivery efficiency through long-duration generation, multimodal reference, and consistent editing; platforms such as Tomato Novels, Creator Center, and production institutions are handling IP development and large-scale production. Hongguo, on the other hand, has established commercial monetization channels through free content, algorithmic distribution, and advertising-e-commerce revenue models, while promoting content quality through review systems, revenue sharing, and investment policies. As a result, ByteDance has formed an industrial closed loop where models, content, traffic, and monetization synergize effectively. As content supply expands rapidly and advertising resources become scarcer, the core challenge in AI dramas has shifted from insufficient production capacity to insufficient effective supply. Industry value is expected to further concentrate among companies with high commercial efficiency, high-quality IPs and premium production capabilities, high-quality training data resources, and deep collaboration with Hongguo.
10. CITIC Construction Investment: Power equipment and new energy industry fundamentals are materializing, but valuations remain depressed—seeking positive demand catalysts.
According to a research report from CITIC Construction Investment, the second quarter saw strong revenue realization in lithium-ion energy storage, while offshore wind and solar power declines reflect the industry's current stagnation at a low point; the power equipment sector continues to enter a period of prosperity, particularly with strong performance along the export chain. However, concerns about the future have depressed sector valuations. On the expansion front, overall industry growth remains moderate. Investment recommendation: Large-scale storage, residential storage, lithium-ion batteries, and related materials began delivering earnings growth in the second quarter, with supply-demand fundamentals still healthy. Recently, valuations have declined significantly due to external environmental changes, making them worthy of continued focused attention. In terms of pricing based on order or marginal changes, pay close attention to companies in the domestic gas turbine industry chain, AIDC, and European offshore wind sectors.