Mini Program: Daily Investment Bank / Institutional Insights Summary
Overseas
1. Fitch: Oil price risks have shifted to the downside; Brent crude may fall to $70 by 2026
Fitch Ratings maintains its forecast of an average Brent crude oil price of $87 per barrel in 2026, but notes that oil price risks have shifted to the downside. As the oil market is expected to return to oversupply starting in September, Brent crude prices could fall to $70 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. Fitch states that increased supply from the resumption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could offset additional supply disruptions; if tensions in the Middle East ease, regional production could recover rapidly. Abundant global inventories and growing non-OPEC supply will continue to weigh on oil price trends.
2. Goldman Sachs questions the notion that the dollar's dominance is under threat, stating that yen intervention has limited impact.
Goldman Sachs believes that U.S. support for Japan’s efforts to stabilize the yen is unlikely to undermine the dollar’s status as the world’s primary reserve currency. Japan is the largest foreign investor in the $31 trillion U.S. Treasury market. Following last month’s coordinated foreign exchange intervention by the U.S. and Japan, some market participants expressed concerns that such interventions—intended to prevent sharp volatility in the U.S. bond market—could erode confidence in the dollar as a reserve asset. Goldman Sachs stated that this perspective rests on the assumption that the U.S. may in the future attempt to prevent other countries from selling U.S. Treasuries. “This seems far-fetched,” wrote strategists including Michael Cahill in a report. “We do not agree with the view that this action will damage the dollar’s status as a reserve currency.”
3. Institutional Simplex Trading: FOMO sentiment is driving demand for S&P 500 call options.
Traders have shown strong demand for options betting on further gains in the S&P 500, with call option contracts on the benchmark index exceeding 4 million in volume on Tuesday, a record high, while put option volume remained in line with average levels. Jason Coogan, a trader at Simplex Trading, noted that over the two days ending Tuesday, the market experienced a “one-way flow of orders.” Analyst Tanvir Sandhu said, “The options market is reflecting investors’ FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment. Investors currently appear more concerned about missing the next rally than protecting against a market pullback, as evidenced by a significant shift in options skew. Even as equities continue to rise, strong demand for call options continues to support elevated implied volatility.”
Domestic
1. CICC: Cross-border e-commerce sentiment is improving, with leading sellers potentially experiencing a business turnaround
China International Capital Corporation's research report states that cross-border e-commerce is expected to enter an upward phase in 2026, with leading sellers potentially experiencing a turnaround in operations. From 2020 to 2023, under the pandemic context, overseas e-commerce penetration increased, amplified by consumer subsidies in Europe and the U.S., as well as domestic platform expansion abroad, prompting a surge in cross-border sellers and intensifying industry competition. Starting in 2024, U.S.-China trade tensions constrained overseas expansion, while stricter platform rules, reduced traffic support, tighter cross-border tax reporting, and enhanced logistics oversight further increased operational pressures, disproportionately affecting small and medium-sized sellers. Beginning in 2026, as the trade environment stabilizes, inventory pressures ease, and weaker players exit the market, leading cross-border sellers are expected to see a bottoming-out and reversal in performance, with market leaders likely to strengthen further.
2. CITIC Securities: The export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo may accelerate copper prices toward surpassing $15,000 per ton.
A research report from CITIC Securities suggests that the news of the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s copper concentrate export ban could further fuel bullish sentiment in the copper market, pushing copper prices to accelerate toward levels above $15,000 per ton. Amid cooling expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, frequent disruptions at the mining level, and the United States’ ongoing drawdown of global copper inventories, we anticipate a synchronized rise in valuation and earnings for the copper sector, and recommend copper companies with high-quality mine assets and clear production growth pathways.
3. CITIC Securities: Hong Kong insurance faces short-term negative impacts, but does not alter the long-term trend of growing demand.
According to a research report from CITIC Securities, the increased tax compliance requirements for Hong Kong insurance policies may temporarily dampen demand for cross-border insurance purchases, but the direct financial impact on banks is limited. In the medium to long term, Hong Kong insurance products retain their distinct advantages in returns, foreign currency asset allocation, and overseas living protection, and demand for cross-border wealth allocation remains resilient. The current market adjustment primarily reflects short-term sentiment and policy expectations, without altering the long-term business fundamentals of Hong Kong financial institutions.
4. CITIC Construction Investment: The transportation sector demonstrates notable allocation value
CITIC Construction Investment's research report indicates that the transportation sector has emerged as a compelling investment opportunity. Government-backed funds are providing strong support at dividend yields of 6%–8%, establishing a valuation floor. Core stocks in the sector are increasingly resembling bonds, serving as a safe haven during market volatility and attracting institutional investors such as insurance companies and social security funds, creating a synergistic force led by government-backed capital with follow-on inflows from institutional investors. The sector’s primary headwind is a lack of capital, not fundamental weakness; allocations by active mutual funds to transportation have reached historical lows, and capital constraints are now showing marginal improvement. Pay particular attention to HALO assets represented by the transportation and coal sectors.
5. CITIC Securities: The copper sector is expected to experience a synchronized rise in valuation and earnings.
A research report from CITIC Securities suggests that news of the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s copper concentrate export ban could further fuel bullish sentiment in the copper market, pushing prices to accelerate above $15,000 per ton. Amid cooling expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, frequent disruptions at the mining level, and the United States continuing to draw down global copper inventories, the copper sector is expected to experience synchronized growth in valuation and earnings. The report recommends copper companies with high-quality mine assets and clear pathways for production growth.
6. Huatai Securities: Policy measures for the second half of the year are being implemented, focusing on investment advancement in the "Six Networks"
Huatai Securities' research report states that over the past two weeks, policy focus has centered on analyzing the first-half economic situation and planning policies for the second half, from the Political Bureau meeting to the State Council executive meeting and then to ministerial work conferences. The July Political Bureau meeting called for “enhancing countercyclical regulation,” emphasizing accelerated fiscal spending and bond fund utilization, with the third quarter focused on implementing existing policies effectively. The timing and intensity of fiscal policy in the second half of the year are critical to achieving economic growth targets; based on the State Council’s policy arrangements and the second-half work conference content from various ministries, the priority is to seize the third-quarter construction peak to accelerate the completion of physical work, with “two major initiatives” and the “six networks” serving as key drivers. Monetary policy is expected to seek a dynamic balance among multiple objectives—supporting growth, stabilizing the exchange rate, and managing risks—while capital market policies focus on stabilizing markets, regulating quantitative activities, and guarding against external risks.
7. China Europe Fund: After recent adjustments, the valuations of some companies in the AI industry chain have entered a relatively low range.
Du Houliang, Deputy Director of the Equity Research Department at Zhongou Fund, believes that the recent pullback in the technology sector is primarily due to the liquidation of overseas highly leveraged capital, rather than a reversal of industry fundamentals. Du notes that AI is a long-term industry spanning more than a decade; analyzing both supply and demand, supply is constrained by cost reductions in software and hardware and the expansion of global industrial capacity, leaving a significant gap between current supply and rapidly growing demand. Du points out that, following the recent adjustment, valuations of some companies in the AI industrial chain have entered a relatively low range. This reflects, to some extent, pessimistic market sentiment, but risks must be viewed cautiously—low valuation alone does not constitute a sufficient condition for price appreciation. Currently, the mismatch between industry computing power supply and token demand is unlikely to be fundamentally resolved in the short term; while high levels of industry activity remain supported by fundamentals, ongoing monitoring of order fulfillment and capacity ramp-up timelines is essential.