Mini Program: Daily Investment Bank / Institutional Insights Summary
Overseas
1. ING: The Fed's rate hike signals leave the euro in a vulnerable position.
International Netherlands analysts noted in a report that the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday to raise interest rates and signal further monetary tightening could push the euro lower against the dollar over the coming weeks. They stated that if oil prices surge again and the Fed raises rates as early as October, the EUR/USD exchange rate could fall below 1.14, potentially testing the June low of 1.132. However, they added that the Fed is likely to hike rates again in December in sync with the European Central Bank, which should have a neutral impact on the exchange rate. Nonetheless, International Netherlands still expects EUR/USD to rise to 1.16 by year-end if oil prices decline and risk sentiment improves.
2. ING: The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may each raise rates at least one more time.
ING now expects the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to each raise interest rates once before the end of this year, differing from their previous forecast of maintaining rates unchanged. ING economists stated in a report: “The Fed’s meeting this week and the ECB’s meeting last week suggest that both central banks are unlikely to pursue the highly accommodative monetary policy we previously anticipated.” The economists noted that both central banks are currently facing supply-side shocks triggered by surging energy prices, although the overall economic impact remains limited for now; meanwhile, policymakers still recall the sharp inflation spike in 2022 and the delayed monetary policy response. The economists expect both central banks to likely raise rates in December.
3. JPMorgan: Oil price and interest rate shocks are temporary; recommend overweighting European and emerging market equities
JPMorgan’s global strategists say that strong profit margins, expanding earnings growth, and solid corporate balance sheets will support continued upward momentum in equities before year-end. In a research report released on Monday led by Mislav Matejka, the team wrote that recent market pullbacks triggered by Brent crude surpassing $100 and rising bond yields are unlikely to interrupt this rally. The strategists recommend overweighting equities in the eurozone and emerging markets; they favor sectors such as mining, capital goods, and semiconductors, while underweighting media and software. They expect technology stocks to struggle to lead the market in the second half of the year. The team forecasts the MSCI Europe Index to reach 420 by December, implying a potential upside of 9%; the Euro Stoxx 50 at 6,800; the MSCI Europe Index at 2,750; and the Stoxx 600 at 680. The strategists anticipate continued short-term market volatility but view risk-off corrections as buying opportunities; corporate profit margins remain near historical highs, and earnings growth is no longer confined to artificial intelligence.
4. Oaktree Capital: The Fed should reduce communication and let the economy operate on its own
Howard Marks, Co-Chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, said he prefers the Federal Reserve to reduce its communication. Fed Chair Powell is seeking to cut back on certain guidance measures, which Powell has previously said have constrained the central bank’s policy space in recent years. Marks said on Sunday, “I personally would prefer to see a less interventionist Federal Reserve; typically, the Fed should allow the economy to operate on its own unless it risks running out of control—either overheating or cooling too much.” Marks noted that reducing policy guidance means investors must make their portfolios more resilient, which benefits society. Marks also called for the formation of an artificial intelligence task force to study how AI will impact key areas of the economy, such as the labor market.
5. UBS: Lowers KOSPI target by nearly 10% due to worsening macroeconomic headwinds
UBS has lowered its 12-month target for the Korean KOSPI index from 8,800 to 8,000, citing rising interest rates, a stronger won, and higher oil prices. In a report last Friday, analyst Yong-Suk Son noted that this revision reduces the implied price-to-earnings ratio from 8x to 7x, reflecting deteriorating macroeconomic headwinds despite continued strong earnings growth. UBS still expects robust KOSPI earnings per share growth of 256% in 2026 and 38% in 2027; however, the index may remain range-bound until clearer guidance on earnings sustainability and shareholder return measures is provided in the upcoming third and fourth-quarter earnings seasons. He noted that the yield on 10-year Korean government bonds has risen from 3.4% at the start of the year to 4.5%, the Bank of Korea has raised rates twice since July, and oil prices remain above $100, all exerting pressure on the market. A stronger won adds further downward pressure: UBS estimates that a 1% appreciation in the won reduces KOSPI earnings by approximately 1.1%.
6. Barclays: The timing of the next Bank of Japan rate hike remains unclear, with expected moves in January and July.
Barclays economists stated in a report that Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda appeared to deliberately blend hawkish and dovish remarks during last Friday’s press conference to preserve maximum policy flexibility for the future. The Bank of Japan does not yet appear to have a clear view on the timing of its next potential rate hike. Barclays expects the Bank of Japan to raise rates further in January and July next year, with the terminal rate reaching 1.75%. Barclays believes that after two hawkish members’ terms expire in July 2027, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government may appoint new dovish members, reinforcing the Bank of Japan’s overall inclination to maintain the status quo.
7. Evercore ISI: The Bank of Japan's rate hike triggers yen selling, potentially troubling U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent
The Bank of Japan responded to U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s call for rate hikes, yet the yen continues to weaken, potentially raising new concerns for Bessent—earlier this summer, he helped lead the first coordinated intervention to support the yen since 1998. Krishna Guha, an analyst at Evercore ISI, said: “The result is that although the Bank of Japan did shift toward a more hawkish stance, it still fell short of market expectations. Previously, Bessent emphasized the issue of ‘information asymmetry’ in his efforts to strengthen the yen, and the market had anticipated a stronger response. The Bank of Japan’s reluctance to signal more aggressive policy moves will put pressure on Bessent’s efforts to bolster the yen.”
8. Capital Economics: Oil prices may remain high in triple digits next year
According to Capital Economics, if the Middle East conflict lasts longer and supply has not recovered by the end of 2026, oil prices could remain above $100 per barrel for much of next year. Hamad Hussain, Senior Economist at the firm, said: “The Houthi advance in Yemen and the lack of diplomatic progress increase the risk that the conflict will be more severe and prolonged than our initial assumptions.”
9. JPMorgan: South Korea's interest rate outlook carries upside risks, with the terminal rate potentially exceeding 3.75%
J.P. Morgan believes there is an upside risk to South Korea’s interest rate outlook, expecting the Bank of Korea to raise rates to 3.75% in November, February, and May—above the median forecast of 3.5% by economists. The bank forecasts South Korea’s economy to grow 3.8% this year and 3.3% next year, with the semiconductor boom potentially boosting investment, exports, wages, and domestic demand. J.P. Morgan expects the Bank of Korea to hold rates steady at 3% on October 22, while warning that stronger domestic demand and persistent core inflation could push the terminal rate above 3.75%.
Domestic
CITIC Construction Investment: The A-share market has entered its second round of recovery.
CITIC Construction Investment believes that the A-share market has entered its second phase of recovery. The macroeconomic tensions triggered by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, which pushed up oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields, have temporarily subsided, leading to declines in oil prices and long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Domestically, a loose interest rate environment and stable RMB exchange rate have allowed market focus to return to earnings momentum, creating a window for capital to flow back into high-momentum sectors. However, ongoing monitoring is required for the sustainability of falling global interest rates and oil prices, as well as potential external disruptions from the FOMC meeting at the end of October. In terms of allocation, adopt a balanced and layered approach: on the offensive side, prioritize segments with constrained computing power supply and rising prices (optical chips, PCB manufacturing, CCL, server systems) and industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, and tin; on the defensive side, use dividend-paying assets as a base position to hedge against volatility, while flexibly seizing short-term opportunities in domestic demand sectors such as agriculture, aesthetic medicine, and textiles and apparel driven by policy expectations.
2. Dongfang Jincheng: The LPR quote in September 2026 remains unchanged, with potential for a reduction later on.
Dongfang Jincheng Research noted that the LPR quotes for both tenors in September remained unchanged, largely in line with market expectations. Since the beginning of the year, LPR quotes have remained stable, supported by a first-half GDP growth rate of 4.7%, which falls within the annual target range of 4.5% to 5.0%. Key areas of new-quality productive forces, led by high-tech manufacturing, have accelerated their development. This indicates that although domestic investment and consumption momentum weakened since the second quarter, resulting in a slowdown in economic growth drivers, macroeconomic policy has maintained strong resolve, with monetary policy remaining in a holding pattern. This is the fundamental reason why the LPR quotes were not adjusted in September. We anticipate that the PBOC may later implement policy-driven rate cuts, which would likely prompt corresponding declines in LPR quotes. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee’s meeting on July 30 emphasized the need to “fully leverage the effectiveness of existing policies, promptly plan and introduce practical and effective new policies, and strengthen countercyclical adjustments,” and called for “comprehensive use and timely adjustment of monetary policy tools.” Considering the overall economic and financial situation and price trends, the introduction of a new round of incremental policies cannot be ruled out (21st Century Business Herald).
3. Galaxy Securities: Industrial resilience is evident; Fed rate hikes do not alter the long-term AI thesis.
According to a research report from Galaxy Securities, over the long term, Fed rate hikes will not alter the fundamental logic that the AI technology revolution enhances productivity. Although AI infrastructure development temporarily increases demand for resources such as chips and electricity, in the long run, AI will generate a structural deflationary effect by boosting total factor productivity and expanding supply capacity, thereby offsetting inflationary pressures. The long-term growth trend in global AI capital expenditures remains intact, and demand for computing power will continue to expand. Several Fed officials believe that AI will raise the neutral interest rate level, meaning that even if nominal rates remain high, real policy rates could still be relatively low—AI industry growth resilience is sufficient to support its continued expansion in a high-interest-rate environment. Therefore, over the medium to long term, the fundamental logic underpinning the AI industry remains solid, and the valuation adjustments caused by rate hikes have instead provided companies with genuine earnings support a more reasonable valuation starting point.
4. Huatai Securities A-share Strategy: Recovery Continues, but Beware of Pre-Holiday Volatility
Huatai Securities' A-share strategy report states that following the Fed's recent interest rate hike, the technology sector has rebounded, and the temporary easing of short-term overseas liquidity uncertainty may open a window for further recovery. Technology sectors previously constrained by expectations of overseas liquidity tightening are likely to benefit the most. However, weak domestic economic and credit data, narrowing profitability recovery, and cautious sentiment ahead of the National Day holiday continue to exert downward pressure, limiting market upside potential. The report maintains its view that this is a rebound rather than a trend-driven rally. In the medium term, structural opportunities still exist, though the breadth of recovery has narrowed, and the overall tone has shifted to neutral. For portfolio allocation, focus on technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and chemical chains where pressure has eased, while maintaining dividend-paying stocks as a core holding to reduce volatility.
5. CITIC Securities: Huawei officially announces the Ascend 960 super node, continuing to看好 domestic NPO investment opportunities
According to a research report from CITIC Securities, the Huawei Connect Conference was held in Shanghai from September 17 to 19, during which the company stated that super nodes have become the mainstream form of computing infrastructure in the Agentic AI era, with the Ascend series chips serving as a critical foundation. The Ascend 950 is already in large-scale commercial use, while the Ascend 960DT and 960PR will be launched ahead of schedule. Regarding super nodes, Huawei unveiled the industry’s first super node utilizing NPO—“Ascend 960 Super Node”—expected to hit the market in Q3 2027. With domestic computing power rapidly advancing, Ascend is leading the major trend of “fiber replacing copper” and making strategic bets on NPO, suggesting investors pay close attention to investment opportunities in Huawei’s optical interconnection value chain.
6. CITIC Securities: Coal supply stabilization policies have been implemented, but relief from tight supply may still take time.
According to a research report from CITIC Securities, recent joint efforts by multiple departments to ensure safe and stable coal production and supply aim to promote mine resumption and accelerate the release of advanced production capacity. We believe this policy is designed to facilitate a steady recovery in coal output and secure supply for peak demand periods; however, production increases remain constrained by safety conditions, approval procedures, and monthly production intensity. Amid the release of peak-season demand and orderly supply recovery, we expect the industry to maintain an overall tight supply situation with coal prices remaining at elevated levels, and recommend positioning in companies with strong earnings performance on dips.
7. CITIC Securities: Ultimate Cooling Arrives, Diamond Enters Its Industrialization Year
According to a research report from CITIC Securities, driven by three factors—the sharply rising power consumption of AI chips, the approaching physical limits of traditional metal cooling, and the continuous optimization of diamond manufacturing technology—the diamond cooling industry is poised to enter an investment opportunity marking its industrialization breakthrough. CITIC Securities recommends focusing on two key themes: first, companies that have taken the lead in commercial delivery and significant production scaling are likely to benefit most from surging demand; second, pay attention to enterprises with advanced processes, capabilities in large-size manufacturing and full industrial chain integration, and accelerating expansion efforts.
8. China Merchants Securities: Technology stocks with solid earnings fundamentals are poised for a catch-up rally, and the market is likely to reach a turning point soon.
China Merchants Securities believes that macro-related uncertainties have been resolved this week, leading to a market rebound. The Federal Reserve delivered an expected 25-basis-point rate hike and maintained a hawkish tone, with the dot plot implying one more hike this year. However, as the negative macro shock has now been priced in, there are no more significant macro variables to drive market sentiment in the short term; markets are gradually becoming less sensitive to macro factors and returning to industry-driven valuation. China’s August economic data showed a pattern of “marginal recovery in production, weak aggregate demand, and divergence between new and old growth drivers.” The weak aggregate figures have already been fully priced in, while structural momentum remains concentrated in technology and exports. The U.S.-Iran stalemate continues, but increased diplomatic efforts and a decline in oil prices from recent highs have lessened geopolitical risks. As macro headwinds ease and prior overcrowding in technology sectors has been absorbed, capital is flowing back into tech. This week, TMT trading volume accounted for 43% of total market activity. Technology stocks with solid earnings fundamentals are poised for catch-up gains. The market is likely approaching a turning point; we recommend focusing on AI computing infrastructure, CPO supply chains, commodity price increases, and export-oriented sectors within technology growth.
9. Guojin Securities: The PCB equipment industry is entering a phase of concurrent upswing in prosperity and structural upgrading.
According to a research report from Guojin Securities, AI computing power construction is driving the expansion of high-end PCB production, while four major trends—increased layer count, advanced HDI technology, lower-material-loss materials, and finer circuit patterning—are propelling equipment upgrades. The combination of these factors has ushered the PCB equipment industry into a phase of concurrent prosperity and structural advancement. Key beneficiaries include: first, ultrafast laser drilling, where material upgrades are unlocking demand and industrialization enters its 0-to-1 stage; second, laminators, where the convergence of higher layer counts, material upgrades, and mSAP technology is accelerating production expansion needs; and third, exposure equipment, where finer circuit patterning is driving the upgrade of direct imaging technology, just before industrial explosion. As AI high-end board production continues to expand alongside process technology advancements, the market potential for ultrafast lasers, laminators, and exposure equipment remains substantial.