Odaily Planet Daily reports that on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has noted that Bitcoin’s three-month futures basis has remained below the yield of the U.S. two-year Treasury note since February this year, a condition that has persisted for several months.
Glassnode notes that historically, only one similar period lasted close to this duration—between August 2022 and January 2023—which ultimately corresponded to the low point of the previous market cycle.
The institution stated that the prolonged weakness in futures basis not only reflects weak market demand for leverage but also directly impacts the overall market depth and trading volume.
Analysts believe that futures basis is commonly used to measure market risk appetite and arbitrage capital demand. When the basis yield falls below the risk-free rate, it indicates that the additional return investors receive for assuming risk by holding Bitcoin futures is insufficient, which may lead to reduced capital inflows into the futures market and consequently affect liquidity and trading activity.