According to ME News, on August 2 (UTC+8), on-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that Bitcoin’s three-month futures basis has remained below the yield of the U.S. two-year Treasury note since February this year, a condition that has now persisted for several months. Glassnode noted that historically, only one other period closely resembled this duration: from August 2022 to January 2023, which ultimately coincided with the trough of the previous market cycle. The firm explained that prolonged weakness in the futures basis reflects weak demand for leverage in the market and directly impacts overall market depth and trading volume. Analysts suggest that the futures basis is typically used to gauge market risk appetite and arbitrage capital demand. When the basis yield falls below the risk-free rate, it indicates that the additional return investors receive for assuming risk by holding Bitcoin futures is insufficient, potentially leading to reduced capital inflows into the futures market and thereby affecting liquidity and trading activity. (Source: ODAILY)
Glassnode Warns of Market Liquidity Pressure: BTC 3-Month Futures Basis Reaches Historic Low
KuCoinFlashShare
Summary
Chain analytics firm Glassnode has flagged increasing pressure in the futures market, noting that the Bitcoin 3-month futures basis has remained below U.S. 2-year Treasury yields since February 2026. This prolonged weakness mirrors a similar period in 2022–2023, which coincided with a market low. A declining perpetual futures basis signals weak demand for leverage, reducing market depth and trading volume. Analysts warn that when basis yields fall below risk-free rates, the absence of a risk premium may drive capital away from the futures market, further constraining liquidity.
Source:Show original
Disclaimer: The information on this page may have been obtained from third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of KuCoin. This content is provided for general informational purposes only, without any representation or warranty of any kind, nor shall it be construed as financial or investment advice. KuCoin shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any outcomes resulting from the use of this information.
Investments in digital assets can be risky. Please carefully evaluate the risks of a product and your risk tolerance based on your own financial circumstances. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use and Risk Disclosure.