ChainThink reports that, according to analysis released by Glassnode on September 8, Bitcoin's current volatility is at a historical low, but the true factor suppressing volatility is not market cap growth, but long-term holders (LTHs) locking up their holdings.
The regression model's explanatory power for "detrended realized volatility" shows that the proportion of supply from long-term holders is the strongest factor, with an explanatory power of nearly 19% to 20%;
Non-circulating supply is approximately 12%, activity is around 11.5%, market cap itself is only about 3.5%, and the stablecoin ratio is nearly zero.
Glassnode believes that the more BTC is concentrated in the hands of long-term holders who are reluctant to trade, the fewer floating supplies are available for dumping or short-term speculation, resulting in lower realized volatility. The current low volatility represents a temporary equilibrium driven by distribution, not a structural, permanent change.
Once long-term holders begin to sell or illiquid supply reactivates, volatility could quickly rebound from low levels. The impact of leverage, funding rates, and futures open interest comes after holder structure.