Glassnode: With selling pressure easing, could Bitcoin's price be poised for a rebound?
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin short-term holders have exited a historically strong selling zone, with the percentage of their holdings in profit declining from nearly 100% in late September to approximately 70%.
- Glassnode reports that the percentage of Bitcoin held by short-term investors in a profitable position has declined from nearly 100% in late September to approximately 70%.
- Since September, Bitcoin profit-taking has noticeably slowed. According to Glassnode, as of October 21, realized profits had declined to approximately half of their previous level.
- Over the two trading days of October 22 and 23, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total outflow of $773.5 million.
- Bitcoin's most recent pullback has also shifted market attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 28, as investors look for signals that could influence the next move in cryptocurrency prices.
In a market update on October 27, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode stated that the recent decline in profitability has made Bitcoin a "significantly better entry point" today than it was a month ago for investors expecting the upward trend to continue.
The company's latest chart shows that the percentage of short-term holders in profit has fallen below a threshold historically associated with increased selling pressure.
Short-term holders are typically defined as investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. The market closely monitors this group’s profitability, as recent buyers often react more quickly to price fluctuations and may sell when their holdings achieve significant gains.
In late September, nearly all of the Bitcoin held by this group was in profit, giving investors the opportunity to lock in gains as prices rebounded. However, the subsequent pullback reduced the proportion of tokens trading above their purchase cost.
Glassnode's analysis shows that the unrealized profits available for recent buyers to realize have decreased, though the company did not indicate that Bitcoin will necessarily rebound from current levels.
Bitcoin profit-taking has slowed since September.
Before the latest data release, recent Bitcoin buyers experienced a period of increased selling activity, particularly earlier this month when Bitcoin attempted to reclaim $85,000.
In the October 7 market report, Glassnode found that approximately 86% of the Bitcoin deposited into exchanges on October 4 were sold at a profit by short-term holders—the highest proportion in a year.
At the time, Bitcoin had just closed above $85,000 for the first time during that rally, prompting some investors who had purchased Bitcoin in the preceding months to realize their profits.
However, selling activity has since noticeably cooled down.
Glassnode’s “Week On-Chain” report, released on October 21, stated that the volume of realized profits has fallen to approximately half the level recorded during the week of Bitcoin’s September high.
Meanwhile, realized losses have remained relatively stable; the largest loss last week occurred on October 15, when Bitcoin approached $80,000.
The company also found that investors who bought Bitcoin one to two years ago have slowed their selling activity; this group is currently transferring less than one-third of the daily token volume seen at the peak in early October.
Bitcoin faces resistance near $87,500.
Although the profitability of short-term holders has improved, Bitcoin continues to face selling pressure at higher price levels.
Glassnode's analysis on October 21 identified the $85,000 to $87,500 range as a significant resistance zone, where multiple key market indicators are concentrated.
Investors who bought Bitcoin 6 to 12 months ago have an average holding cost of approximately $86,700, while sell orders on exchanges are concentrated between approximately $86,500 and $87,500.
Large liquidation clusters are concentrated around $85,000 and $87,000, which could intensify volatility if Bitcoin attempts another rebound.
On the downside, the analysis firm noted that after Bitcoin briefly approached $80,000 on October 15, buying interest emerged around this level.
This price range is particularly significant because the estimated average purchase cost for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors and corporate treasury holders is concentrated between $80,000 and $81,500.
However, since then, Bitcoin has struggled to hold this support level.
As crypto.news previously reported, on October 26, Bitcoin fell below $80,000, dipping as low as approximately $79,332 during trading due to leverage liquidations and renewed outflows from ETFs putting downward pressure on the price.
On the October 21 assessment, Glassnode’s “True Market Mean”—a metric used to estimate the average purchase cost of economically active Bitcoin supply—was approximately $77,600.
Before the Federal Reserve's decision, Bitcoin ETF fund flows remain unstable.
As Bitcoin struggles to regain momentum, institutional demand has become another area of concern.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw significant inflows in early October, including a strong buying day on October 19. However, this demand recovery was uneven.
According to the latest Bitcoin ETF fund flow data, these funds attracted $524.8 million in inflows on October 21, but recorded $635.6 million in outflows the following day.
An additional $137.9 million flowed out on October 23, bringing the total outflow over these two trading days to $773.5 million.
Despite outflows, these ETFs still recorded a net inflow of approximately $301.2 million over five consecutive trading days.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's drop below $80,000 has shifted market focus toward the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision on October 28.
The Federal Reserve will announce its decision after a two-day policy meeting, and investors are watching for signals on the direction of interest rates.
The September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report will be released on October 29, followed by a large batch of Bitcoin options expiring on October 30.