Germany’s far-right AfD won 44% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, doubling its support and far surpassing the CDU, marking a major setback for Merz. The AfD advocates for halting aid to Ukraine, restoring relations with Russia, and exiting the eurozone.
On Sunday, Germany’s far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), achieved its best-ever result in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt. According to ARD’s exit poll, AfD received 44% of the vote, more than doubling its support and far outpacing the long-ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU), whose vote share dropped to 17.5%.
According to exit polls, the AfD is just three seats short of securing an absolute majority in the state parliament. German television channel ZDF reported a voter turnout of 77% in this election.
This outcome is regarded as one of the greatest challenges faced by Germany's mainstream political forces since the founding of the Federal Republic after World War II. For Chancellor Merz, this state election also represents a major setback.
AfD draws closer to state-level governing power for the first time
Ulrich Siegmund, 35, is the AfD’s lead candidate for Saxony-Anhalt. After the election results were announced, he told supporters at the party’s headquarters in Magdeburg: “This is a cornerstone—the foundation upon which Germany’s first AfD-led government will be built, starting in Saxony-Anhalt and then spreading across the entire country.”
During the campaign, Seigfried's rallies attracted thousands of attendees, with supporters eagerly seeking autographs and photos. In contrast, Mertz made only two public appearances in the state, limited to issuing statements to journalists.
Sigmund had previously described this state election as the first step toward the AfD achieving national power in the 2029 federal election. After the victory, he said, "We have made history in this country."
“The people have clearly shown that they ultimately want political change, and most importantly, they have expressed their desire to achieve this change alongside us,” said Sigmund.
If he cannot secure the majority needed to become governor, Sigmund said he will wait for a political deadlock to emerge. He predicts that if the CDU ultimately forms a government, the political chaos could last “several months.”
He also told Bloomberg that the AfD will win more votes in the next election: “We will only win.”
However, the AfD currently does not hold the absolute majority needed to form a government independently. In addition to the AfD and the CDU, the Social Democrats received 9.2% of the vote, the Greens received 8.9%, and the Left Party received 8.6%.
The BSW, founded by former Left Party leader Sahra Wagenknecht, also surpassed the 5% parliamentary threshold and won seats in the state parliament.
CDU Governor Sven Schulze said voters have “sent a signal.” Although the CDU had previously made clear it would not cooperate with the AfD, he told party members: “Some say this is a dark day for Saxony-Anhalt. I say this is democracy.”
AfD co-leader Alice Weidel stated that the party will proactively reach out to potential partners, including dissatisfied members within the CDU, to advance government formation.
BSW proposed another possible scenario: a minority government led by an independent governor, supported by shifting majorities that could also include votes from AfD.
Sigmund rejected the arrangement, calling it a "mess," and ruled out any cross-party deals that might hinder the AfD from fulfilling its promises of change. "If it comes to a crunch, then we have new elections," he said.
Merkel’s conservative faction has indicated it will engage in negotiations with other parties, but this would require bringing together political forces with vastly differing policy positions. In the neighboring eastern state of Thuringia, the conservatives are currently relying on the passive tolerance of the Left Party to maintain a minority government.
Mertz faces dual pressures from economic and political sources.
Saxony-Anhalt is the German federal state with the lowest GDP per capita among Germany’s 16 states, with a population of approximately 2 million. Since German reunification, it has experienced the largest population decline of any state, with its resident population decreasing by more than a quarter between 1990 and 2024.
Amid sluggish economic growth and rising energy prices, Merz's campaign performance in the state fell short of expectations. A poll by ARD found that 87% of voters in the state are dissatisfied with the federal government.
Sigmund even called Mertz the AfD's "best campaigner," precisely because of his extremely low support in the state.
“This election result is first and foremost a vote of no confidence in the federal government,” said Marcel Fratzscher, director of the German Economic Institute, to Reuters.
Merkel pledged to boost Germany, Europe's largest economy, through business-friendly reforms and increased government spending, while warning that the AfD's victory in Saxony-Anhalt would harm the state and potentially deter foreign businesses from investing there.
Mertz previously warned that the AfD would push Germany "into the abyss." German business leaders also fear that the party's rise would undermine investment confidence.
Meanwhile, the AfD's support nationwide has continued to rise. According to a recent INSA poll, the party is now Germany's most popular, with 28% support, surpassing the conservatives at 20%.
Some members of the AfD have been regarded by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency as a threat to the constitutional order. The party denies allegations of extremism, calling such claims sensationalist and an insult to millions of AfD supporters.
According to the annual report released in June by Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, the AfD, despite growing popularity, has further consolidated around nationalist ideology and abandoned many of its relatively moderate formulations. The agency noted that an increasing number of AfD officials are openly adopting the concept of “remigration,” referring to the large-scale deportation of immigrants.
In Saxony-Anhalt, AfD members also discussed establishing a state-funded "repatriation task force" to remove "undesirables" from the civil service, while completely reforming the education system to eliminate "left-wing indoctrination."
Strict immigration policies have isolated Europe.
During the campaign, the AfD capitalized on public disillusionment with traditional establishment parties, portraying them as stagnant and out of touch, while proposing a series of hardline policies.
The party’s platform includes strictly limiting immigration, restoring relations with Russia, cutting aid to Ukraine, and exiting the eurozone. It also proposes returning schools and cultural institutions to more traditional values as defined by the AfD, and reforming the public broadcasting system.
The AfD also advocates for separate classes for children of refugees, prohibits the display of rainbow flags in schools, and requires the German national flag to be raised daily and the national anthem to be sung by students and staff during school celebrations.
Other proposals include forming citizen patrol teams, increasing Russian language instruction in schools, and halting the construction of new wind farms.
During the campaign, supporter Antony Lee said: “It’s clear that Germany and Western Europe need change. I believe that, whether you like it or not, a signal for change will be sent from here.”
"I am a father and an entrepreneur, and I know Germany cannot continue like this," he said.
Although far-right parties have made gains in other parts of Europe in recent years, Germany’s Nazi history has led mainstream parties to be especially cautious about cooperating with the AfD. The AfD is currently also isolated within European politics, with its relationships even affected by some far-right peers.
Marine Le Pen of France ended her cooperation with AfD in 2024, after an AfD lawmaker stated in an interview that not all Nazi SS members should be considered criminals.
The Brothers of Italy, led by Italian Prime Minister Meloni, pursues a transatlantic-friendly stance and maintains distance from AfD due to its close ties with Russia.
U.S. President Trump posted a screenshot of the election results on the Truth Social platform without any comment. Other far-right leaders in European countries have applauded AfD's performance, viewing it as a mandate from German citizens for political change.