Huo Xing Finance reports that on August 31, according to TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight), U.S. military forces launched strikes overnight on two rocket launch sites on Iran’s Larak Island, prompting a gap-up rally in international oil prices. The WTI crude oil contract (CL) on Hyperliquid is currently trading at $85.45, up approximately 3.2% over the past 24 hours. The trader xm39, who has been consistently monitoring geopolitical conflicts, adjusted positions in both crude oil and prediction markets during this move. Between 7:32 and 8:00 today, the associated address added approximately 28,400 WTI short contracts, with a notional value of about $2.401 million. As oil prices continued rising, the address closed all 107,400 short contracts at 9:01 at an average price of $84.86, realizing a loss of approximately $131,500. Just ten minutes later, the trading direction shifted from short to long. The address then sequentially bought approximately 64,700 WTI contracts and is now holding a fully margined long position of about 5.531 million USD at 20x leverage, with an unrealized profit of approximately $18,200 and a margin return rate of about 6.6%; the liquidation price is approximately $64.88. Meanwhile, xm39 also increased bets on geopolitical risks on Polymarket. Between 7:43 and 7:51 today, the address purchased a total of 274,500 "Yes" shares on the proposition "The U.S. will invade Iran before 2027" in three transactions, at prices corresponding to probabilities of 14%, 15%, and 16%, investing approximately $41,700. This latest increase expanded the position by approximately 74.7% compared to prior holdings. Currently, xm39 holds a cumulative total of 642,300 "Yes" shares with an accumulated cost of approximately $127,100 and an average purchase probability of 19.79%; the current market probability is about 15.5%, resulting in an unrealized loss of approximately $27,600.
Geopolitical tensions drive $5.5M in WTI longs and 'US invades Iran' bets on Polymarket
MarsBitShare
Summary
On-chain trading signals revealed a major shift on August 31, 2026, when a key trader liquidated 107,400 WTI short contracts, incurring a $131,500 loss, following a U.S. strike on Iran’s Larak Island. The trader then switched to a $5.53M long position with 20x leverage. Simultaneously, 'US invades Iran by 2027' Yes shares on Polymarket rose 74.7% as the trader spent $41,700 at probability levels of 14–16%. Support and resistance levels in oil markets and geopolitical futures are now under close surveillance.
Source:Show original
Disclaimer: The information on this page may have been obtained from third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of KuCoin. This content is provided for general informational purposes only, without any representation or warranty of any kind, nor shall it be construed as financial or investment advice. KuCoin shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any outcomes resulting from the use of this information.
Investments in digital assets can be risky. Please carefully evaluate the risks of a product and your risk tolerance based on your own financial circumstances. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use and Risk Disclosure.