Galaxy Research: Bitcoin's Current Cycle Bottom Has Not Yet Formed; Expected at $40,000–$46,000

Huo Xing Finance reports that, according to Galaxy Research, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle pattern remains valid, but the amplitude of each cycle is narrowing. The report notes that the peak-to-trough declines during the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles were 85%, 84%, and 77%, respectively, while the maximum drawdown from the October 2025 peak to date has been only 51%. Due to this cycle’s relatively moderate peak, Galaxy believes the bottom of this cycle will also be shallower, with a base case estimate ranging between $40,000 and $46,000, potentially occurring before the fourth quarter of 2026. The report emphasizes that only eight months have passed since the peak—significantly less than the historical 12–13 months typically required for cycle bottoms to form—and most bottoming signals have yet to appear, indicating that the bottom of this cycle has not yet been established.