Galaxy says current conditions favor accumulating bitcoin and remains optimistic about bitcoin's long-term prospects. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, said the bear market likely finished in June at prices below $58,000. Thorn argued that improving chart signals, reduced selling pressure and increasing fiscal risks support buying the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Thorn described the current accumulation phase as similar to periods before earlier advances.
Bitcoin's rally has lost momentum in recent weeks, with prices hovering around $80,000. Some bearish market participants have warned that another price crash could follow. Bitcoin traded around $80,000, representing a 38% rise from June lows below $58,000. However, bitcoin remained approximately 35% below the record high above $126,000. Bitcoin would need to rise roughly 53% to regain that peak.
Thorn highlighted bitcoin's recovery above the 50-week moving average after 44 weeks beneath that level. Thorn said five successive weekly closes above the average increased Thorn's confidence that the market had reached a bottom. Thorn also cited market positioning as support for the accumulation thesis. Thorn said asset managers' net long exposure through CME bitcoin futures had declined 57% since the week of the record high. Thorn said several major trading firms had also sharply cut ETF holdings. Thorn interpreted those reductions as evidence that short-term investors had exited, leaving a healthier market.
Galaxy said spot bitcoin ETFs accumulated another 87,000 BTC after the June low. Galaxy said those purchases suggested renewed directional demand while arbitrage activity decreased. Galaxy argues that growing U.S. debt, persistent deficits and increasing interest costs enhance bitcoin's attraction as an asset with fixed supply. Thorn said institutional excitement about stablecoins and tokenization, combined with declining interest in bitcoin, resembles sentiment at earlier market lows.
Galaxy identified broader market declines, disruption associated with AI and quantum computing as risks. Galaxy said a weekly close beneath $76,540, followed by no recovery within a month, would undermine the firm's technical thesis. Nevertheless, Galaxy expects current conditions to support an eventual recovery.
Galaxy Digital is a U.S. financial and infrastructure business that billionaire Mike Novogratz founded in 2018. Galaxy Digital has headquarters in New York City and lists on Nasdaq under GLXY.
Galaxy Digital Urges Bitcoin Accumulation Amid Improved Market Conditions
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Summary
Galaxy Digital is pushing for bitcoin accumulation as the digital asset market shows signs of recovery. Alex Thorn, the firm’s head of research, said the bear market likely ended in June near $58,000, with Bitcoin chart patterns improving. Bitcoin has gained 38% from those lows but is still 35% off its peak. Reduced selling pressure and rising fiscal risks support buying. Galaxy also pointed to lower long exposure in CME futures and ETFs as signs of better positioning.
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