Galaxy Digital's head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, says Bitcoin bottomed in June and has entered an accumulation phase, with a possible return to $125,000. Thorn wrote in a client research note that Bitcoin recovered above its 50-week moving average during the week ended September 20. Thorn said Bitcoin had recorded five consecutive weekly closes above that average as of October 18.
Thorn said every cycle since 2011 had sustained a recovery above that average only after Bitcoin had reached its actual low. Thorn said recoveries following at least 20 weeks below the average never produced a close more than 8.4% below the recovery level during the next year. Thorn placed this cycle's Bitcoin low at 802 days after the halving. Thorn said Thursday was day 916, beyond the period in which each of the three preceding cycles had bottomed. Thorn described the current bear market as the shallowest recorded, with a 53% decline from the high. Thorn compared that fall with previous cycle declines of 93%, 85% and 84%.
Thorn said leveraged funds and basis traders that sustained Bitcoin's carry trade into October 2025 have reduced futures exposure by more than half. Thorn said asset managers' net long exposure to CME Bitcoin futures fell 57% from the week of Bitcoin's record high. Nine major hedge funds accounted for most of the withdrawal. Those funds, including Millennium Management and Brevan Howard, reduced combined ETF holdings by 68,000 BTC between September 2025 and June 2026. That reduction exceeded the combined 48,000 BTC decline among all institutional filers, meaning the remaining reporting institutions collectively increased holdings. Thorn said spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated another 87,000 BTC since the June low while leveraged short positions continued to decline. Thorn said the combination supported an interpretation of genuine directional purchases rather than short-term carry trades.
Federal debt totaled $40.44 trillion as of October 20. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.31% in early October, the highest since 2007. Thorn argued that refinancing such debt alongside a deficit of 6.2% of GDP increases pressure on the government to reduce the debt burden through inflation. Thorn argued that this pressure strengthens the rationale for Bitcoin as an alternative with a fixed supply. Thorn also pointed to weak sentiment and attention moving from Bitcoin toward stablecoins and tokenization. Thorn said similar shifts preceded major rallies in 2015-16 and 2018-19.
Thorn said a weekly Bitcoin close below the 50-week moving average would invalidate the bullish thesis if Bitcoin failed to recover above that average within a month. The 50-week moving average currently stands near $76,540.
Galaxy Digital Predicts Bitcoin Could Retake $125,000 as Accumulation Phase Begins
BenzingaShare
Summary
Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn said Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase after bottoming in June, with potential to retake $125,000. The asset has closed above its 50-week moving average for five straight weeks. Thorn described the current bear market as the shallowest on record, down 53% from the peak. He noted reduced exposure from leveraged funds and major hedge funds, while spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since June. Key support and resistance levels are now in focus as accumulation builds.
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