- Peter Diamandis explained why SpaceX could become the first $10 trillion company.
- He laid out five arguments to support his view.
- In particular, he pointed to different business lines, such as Starlink, AI computing, in-house chip manufacturing, and more.
Peter Diamandis, entrepreneur, founder of the XPRIZE technology innovation foundation, modern futurist, and early SpaceX investor, published an in-depth investment thesis in which he said Elon Musk’s space company could become the world’s first with a $10 trillion market cap.
His comment came ahead of the company’s first financial report after its IPO and lays out the case for Musk’s business delivering long-term growth. In Diamandis’ view, the market is undervaluing SpaceX.
“[Wall] Street doesn’t fully understand how to value SPCX, because it keeps trying to price one company. It’s actually five, stacked on top of each other and wired together by Elon’s particular genius for compressing time,” he wrote.
According to Diamandis, investors are too focused on short-term financial metrics, ignoring the company’s long-term strategy.
SpaceX Is Not Just Rockets
The author highlighted five key areas that, in his view, make up SpaceX’s real value:
- Starlink
- AI computing
- In-house chip manufacturing
- Space launches
- Vertical ecosystem integration
In his view, Starlink has already become one of the fastest-growing telecommunications networks in the world:
“10 million subscribers, doubling every year, and it just turned free-cash-flow positive. That’s not a satellite company. It’s the fastest-scaling utility in human history, connecting the 3 billion people the internet forgot.”
Diamandis also emphasized that SpaceX already has multi-year contracts signed with major clients, including:
- Anthropic — about $15 billion per year
- Google — about $11 billion per year
- Reflection AI — about $1.8 billion per year
In total, that amounts to nearly $28 billion in contracted annual revenue.
“Not a projection. Signed backlog,” Diamandis noted.
At the same time, he stressed that this is only the beginning. According to him, around 2028 the company plans to launch Starmind satellites that will provide AI compute directly in orbit.
“So the $28 billion you can see today is the floor, not the ceiling,” Diamandis said.
He also cited the Terafab project in Texas as another driver of future growth.
According to Diamandis, SpaceX wants to produce its own AI accelerators instead of relying on third-party manufacturers, meaning to “own the chip, own the data center, own the rocket that carries it.”
In the author’s view, launch services remain the foundation of the company’s business. He pointed out that the cost of delivering one kilogram of payload to orbit has fallen from about $54,000 in the Space Shuttle era to $2,500 thanks to Falcon 9, while Starship is expected to push that figure below $100 per kilogram over time.
Diamandis called SpaceX’s key advantage vertical integration:
“SpaceX is the only company on the planet that owns the rocket, the satellites, the ground network, and now the AI compute layer.“
Separately, Diamandis commented on the company’s significant losses, viewing them as investments “in building a $10 trillion business.”
He also compared the situation to Amazon, which operated at a loss for many years while investing in the future.
Investors Backed the Long-Term Thesis
Justin Mateen, JAM Fund founder and Tinder co-founder, said that back in 2017, he viewed SpaceX as potentially the most valuable company in the world, and that its “return can still be 100x plus.”
This was my 2017 $SPCX thesis. I unsuccessfully pitched it to one of the world’s most legendary hedge fund managers soon after I invested.
— Justin Mateen (@justinmateen) August 3, 2026
Three key lines from it:
“I believe that it can be the most valuable company in the world in 10-15 years which would mean that the return… https://t.co/jAk9lUTHpzpic.twitter.com/T9VVrZzem7
He also added:
“I look at this as a hedge against the future and that not having a piece of SpaceX is reckless.”
At the same time, Aaron Burnett, Mach33 CEO, noted that reaching that level of conviction requires deep research into the company and its technology.
As a reminder, the optimistic estimates emerged after SpaceX held the largest IPO in Wall Street history. The company’s shares initially rose above $210, but later sharply corrected after a failed Starship launch. As a result, its market capitalization fell by more than $1 trillion from its all-time high, while short sellers, according to analysts’ estimates, made around $4 billion on the drop in the stock.
Despite this, most Wall Street experts continue to maintain a positive outlook for the company. Against this backdrop, Diamandis urged investors to focus not on quarterly results, but on the potential of the SpaceX ecosystem.
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