FT Survey: AI to Boost Global Economic Growth Without Mass Job Losses

AI is set to boost growth in major economies beyond the US and China over the coming decade without causing mass job losses, according to an FT poll. The poll surveyed 94 economists across Asia, the US and Europe. The poll found that 54% of respondents expected AI to deliver significant economic and productivity gains in many or nearly all G20 countries over the next decade. The poll suggested that widespread and effective adoption by businesses worldwide would drive productivity gains, much as electricity and computers spread benefits beyond their countries of origin.

Jumana Saleheen, chief economist at asset manager Vanguard, said economies that adopt and expand AI use would benefit beyond the places developing the technology. Saleheen said economies using ready-made AI would also benefit, but with a time lag. Martin Beck, chief economist at WPI Strategy, said countries need not develop frontier AI because gains can come through adoption, AI-enabled imports, knowledge spillovers and cheaper goods and services. Beck said the size of the gains would vary, but income growth should benefit across the G20. Tim Leunig, visiting professor at the London School of Economics, said lower prices were the main way new technology transmitted benefits and would, by definition, benefit everyone.

World Bank research in June found that gains from AI could surpass those driven by electrification. Gains of that scale could help reverse the long-term decline in global productivity growth if realised. The World Bank put average annual global productivity growth at 1.4% in the 2000s. The World Bank put the average at 1.1% in the 2010s. The World Bank expects average annual productivity growth of about 0.8% this decade without a major technological shift.

IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said in August that AI was becoming a growth engine for the global economy as investment spread beyond the US. The IMF's October World Economic Outlook said the global economy had proved resilient, with AI-driven technology momentum providing an important offset to geopolitical pressures. The IMF said individual countries' outlooks depended on positions in technology value chains, domestic investment capacity and readiness to absorb new technologies.

However, leading industry figures, including Anthropic's Dario Amodei and OpenAI's Sam Altman, have called for slower innovation because of risks of unpredictable and destructive behaviour by AI agents. Some economists have previously warned that AI benefits would remain concentrated among owners of cutting-edge companies in large economies such as the US and China. Those economists warned that AI would shift wealth from workers to shareholders. Other economists, including economists at the Bank for International Settlements, have warned that a costly reversal of the AI-related investment and stock market boom could significantly damage growth.

The poll identified less-developed countries with weaker infrastructure and emerging economies dependent on outsourcing services replaceable by AI as at risk of falling behind. Thirty-two respondents warned that weaker infrastructure put African countries at particular risk, with Nigeria, Somalia and Ethiopia among the countries singled out. Lea Dauphas, chief economist at TAC Economics, warned that faster productivity growth among early adopters could increase those countries' capacity for further AI investment and compound the gap. The poll also identified risks for countries relying on labour-cost advantages in activities increasingly vulnerable to automation. The Philippines relies on business-process outsourcing, call centres and routine administrative services. Philipp Lausberg, senior policy analyst at the European Policy Centre, said AI could erode existing comparative advantages faster than countries could develop new advantages, identifying risks including for Mexico and Indonesia.

Poll participants frequently identified the Nordic countries, UK, France and Germany as potential winners. However, economists also warned that regulation could slow adoption in Europe. Luis Garicano, a London School of Economics professor, said increasing restrictions on adoption and Europe's lack of presence throughout the supply chain made Europe vulnerable, with some northern European exceptions.

Economists said AI's effects would vary substantially within countries as job markets changed. Many economists identified administrative, customer service, junior professional and other routine cognitive jobs as the most vulnerable. However, a majority said these changes should not cause a large or lasting rise in unemployment because new jobs would be created. Those economists also argued that AI could help economies facing shrinking working-age populations. Dame Diane Coyle, Bennett Professor of Public Policy at the University of Cambridge, said AI would change the character of jobs but did not expect a collapse in employment.