Source: Blockhead
Compiled by Saoirse, Foresight News
France’s National Gambling Authority (ANJ) has now ordered all domestic internet service providers to block Polymarket, a prediction trading platform that allows users to bet on real-world events using cryptocurrency.
This official ban was formally issued on July 16 by France’s National Gambling Authority, escalating a four-year regulatory standoff with unprecedentedly strict measures. The core focus of this regulation is on the harm caused to ordinary users, rather than risks to financial market order.
This qualitative classification is crucial: regulators did not classify Polymarket as an unlicensed cryptocurrency exchange; instead, they directly categorized it as an illegal gambling operation, placing it in the same regulatory category as unlicensed online casinos and sports betting platforms. The legal implications and enforcement measures associated with each classification are vastly different and will significantly influence how other European regulatory authorities approach the case.
Data backing the regulatory upgrade
France previously imposed regulations in November 2024 prohibiting domestic users from engaging in financial transactions with Polymarket, but the measure proved largely ineffective. Citing data from the traffic analysis platform Similarweb, France’s National Gambling Authority reported that in June 2026 alone, the platform attracted 205,057 unique visitors from France, with a total of 578,751 visits. Users could easily bypass the financial transfer restrictions by simply using a virtual private network (VPN). As a result, the authority concluded that only direct blocking of the website’s domain name would achieve effective control.
Regulators have identified two separate violations under investigation: Météo-France filed a complaint alleging that temperature sensor data was manipulated to influence weather-related prediction contracts on Polymarket; the Paris Public Prosecutor’s Cybercrime Unit opened an investigation into this matter on May 4. Additionally, regulators are closely examining a French trader with the username “Fredi9999,” who allegedly manipulated betting odds related to the 2024 U.S. presidential election through large positions and is now under regulatory review in France.
As early as February 2026, France’s National Gambling Authority reclassified such prediction markets as illegal gambling, citing the absence of risk protection mechanisms required by French licensed gambling operators: betting limits and self-exclusion options, which are essential to safeguard consumers.
What does this event mean for the entire industry?
France is not the only country restricting Polymarket; more than 30 countries and regions worldwide have implemented controls on the platform: Switzerland banned the website in November 2024; Poland, Singapore, and Belgium followed with restrictions in early 2025; Portugal introduced regulatory measures in January 2026; Spain issued a temporary blocking order and launched an investigation in May of the same year. Brazil, Argentina, India, Indonesia, as well as Italy, Germany, Romania, Hungary, and Ukraine have all enacted related restrictions.
But France is the largest economy in the European Union and the first member state to require all national operators to uniformly block websites. Official documents repeatedly use phrasing regarding platform addiction and harm to consumers, identical to the language employed in regulating gacha mechanics and other gray-market gambling products.
The broader implication of this issue lies in whether this regulatory classification will be adopted across the entire European Union. By categorizing prediction markets as gambling rather than financial instruments or information services, France’s approach directly conflicts with the current regulatory framework of the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). If other EU member states follow France’s reasoning, crypto prediction markets could face a blanket ban across the EU under gambling laws, rather than being subject to compliant regulation under financial market rules—a path that directly contradicts the long-term compliance strategy pursued by U.S.-based compliant prediction platforms like Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated prediction market overseen by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and is currently expanding its institutional business in the United States, following prior plans to enter the European market. Should the European Union classify such platforms as gambling services, Kalshi’s European expansion would face significant obstacles—not because European users would be entirely blocked from access, but because the platform’s regulatory classification and brand identity would become fundamentally disconnected from its U.S. operations.
At this stage, France serves as a test case for EU regulation. If operators' blocking measures significantly reduce domestic access traffic, and the meteorological agency data tampering case is ultimately prosecuted, other EU regulatory bodies will closely reference this case when developing their own control measures.