Foreign media commentary suggests that the recent prolonged weakness in the crypto market has been primarily driven by rising U.S. inflation, tighter interest rate expectations, and risk-off sentiment stemming from the situation in the Middle East. The article views this downturn as a common phase within Bitcoin’s cycle, rather than an anomalous fluctuation caused by a single event.
Macroeconomic factors are suppressing risk assets.
The article states that after Bitcoin reached a high of $126,080 in October 2025, the market subsequently turned downward. Entering 2026, U.S. inflation data rose, with the inflation rate increasing to 4.2% in May, strengthening market expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain high interest rates.
Under this backdrop, risk assets as a whole are under pressure. The commentary suggests that if another rate hike occurs this year, capital may continue to flow out of high-volatility assets, placing further selling pressure on the crypto market.
Geopolitical tensions increase market pressure
In addition to macroeconomic factors, the article identifies tensions between the United States and Iran as a significant drag on the market. It notes that uncertainty surrounding the prospects for a ceasefire or peace agreement continues to pose upward risks to energy prices.
If oil prices continue to rise, inflationary pressures may intensify further, dampening market expectations for accommodative policies. For crypto assets, this means the short-term environment remains cautious.
Bitcoin's adjustment is seen as part of the cycle.
The article suggests that Bitcoin's long-term price movement often exhibits clear cyclical patterns. According to the historical rhythms it outlines, Bitcoin reached阶段性 new highs in 2017, 2021, and 2025, and the year following each peak is typically accompanied by a significant correction.
The article also notes that in June 2026, Bitcoin fell below $60,000 twice, with approximately 53% of the circulating supply in a floating loss. The commentary suggests that this current pullback resembles a typical correction within the cycle, rather than a sudden failure of market structure.
- Bitcoin's all-time high was $126,080.
- Broke below $60,000 twice in June 2026
- Approximately 53% of circulating Bitcoin is in an unrealized loss.
The overall view of the article is that the current market remains constrained by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, but historically, significant drawdowns following sharp rallies in Bitcoin are not uncommon.