FOMC Statement Reduces Likelihood of Fed Rate Hike in September

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As of July 30, 2026, the FOMC statement indicates the Fed is likely to hold rates steady in September, with a 36.8% probability of no change and a 63.2% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. A 50-basis-point increase has a 0% probability. For October, the probabilities are 26.2% for no change, 55.6% for a 25-basis-point hike, and 18.2% for a 50-basis-point move. Amid growing global regulatory developments such as MiCA and CFT measures, market participants are closely monitoring for policy signals.

BlockBeats news, July 30: According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged through September is 36.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 63.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 0% (previously 17.8%, 60.2%, and 22% respectively prior to the Fed's decision).


The probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady until October is 26.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 55.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 18.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point hike is 0% (compared to 11.9%, 46.1%, 34.7%, and 7.3% respectively prior to the Fed’s decision).

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