FOMC Meeting to Decide on Interest Rate Hike and Its Impact on the Crypto Market

As the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on April 28–29 approaches, all eyes are on Washington, marking Jerome Powell’s final scheduled press conference before the end of his term.

The prediction market is nearly unanimous on the upcoming direction, but hidden signals in the Fed’s wording could significantly impact the cryptocurrency market. The federal funds rate remains unchanged at a range of 3.50% to 3.75% for the third consecutive meeting.

Stable interest rates may sound dull, but in reality, they are one of the most important macroeconomic factors for risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Maintaining rates unchanged eliminates short-term threats, but the range of 3.50% to 3.75% still represents a restrictive policy, with capital costs remaining high and liquidity yet to return to 2021 levels.

After Powell's press conference, there are three scenarios to watch:

• Bullish rationale: Powell hinted that rate cuts could be reconsidered by the end of 2026 if inflation continues to cool. This news boosted risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
• Basic situation: Maintain hold rating; future guidance remains unclear; market has absorbed and stabilized. Bitcoin has maintained its macro correlation range.
• Bear/bearish: Powell hinted that the inclination toward rate hikes is due to persistent energy shocks, a stronger dollar, and selling pressure on cryptocurrencies, making the 3.50% support level a focal point of discussion.

There's a 99% probability of "no change," but behind this lies an unsettling truth: certainty eliminates upside potential. When all traders already know the answer, the asymmetric opportunities inherent in trading vanish. This dynamic is driving a portion of native crypto capital toward early-stage investment opportunities, where informational advantages still exist.

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