FOMC Focus: Key Indicators for the Fed’s Dovish or Hawkish Stance

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CFT concerns remain on the sidelines as the Fed’s October FOMC decision approaches. The market is focused on a potential pause in rate hikes, voting splits, and the tone of the policy statement regarding inflation or financial stability. Powell’s press conference will clarify the October stance and provide hints about December’s trajectory. Risk-on assets could react sharply to any dovish signals.

BlockBeats news, on October 29, less than 20 minutes remain before the Federal Reserve's October FOMC policy decision is officially announced. Prior to this, the key points to watch in this FOMC meeting include the following:


Resolution Statement:


The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to hit the pause button on rate hikes; if it chooses to raise rates, it would be another rare policy move ahead of a U.S. election.


Was the voting ratio unanimous (last time it was 12-0)? This meeting may see 2 to 3 dissenting votes against an interest rate hike, with Logan and Hamaoka most likely supporting an increase.


· If the policy statement emphasizes financial stability, it may be viewed as dovish; if concerns about inflation and spillovers from energy prices intensify, it may be viewed as hawkish.


· Has the wording of the statement been adjusted? If it still retains "return to the target in a timely manner" or further emphasizes "take action when necessary," it implies that room for tightening still exists.


Wash launch event:


Wash's press conference is expected to maintain a refined and pragmatic style, offering no clear forward guidance, with a tone leaning toward objective reporting of the current situation.


How did Walsh explain the decision to hold steady in October while maintaining flexibility for policy action in December?


Wash may be asked to explain what the high levels and recent decline in U.S. Treasury yields signal.


Wash may be asked to interpret the stock market sell-off triggered by artificial intelligence and how to address potential bubbles.

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