Written by Anthony J. Pompliano, Founder and CEO of ProCap Financial
Compiled by Saoirse, Foresight News
Over the past year, Bitcoin has disappointed many investors. This highly anticipated digital asset fell more than 50% from its all-time high of $125,000. But the good news is that the bear market has likely ended, and we are entering the beginning of a new bull market.
These five charts will give you confidence in Bitcoin’s return potential over the next 18 to 24 months.
First, Quinten Francois demonstrated the correlation between the electricity cost of Bitcoin mining and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Historical trends clearly show that both tend to reach their lows simultaneously.
This Bitcoin weekly chart, combined with the mining electricity cost band (purple) and the RSI indicator, shows three instances in 2019, 2022, and 2026 where price retraced to the cost band while the RSI hit its lowest level. Historically, this signal has often preceded the start of a bull market.
If history repeats itself, this would be a strong signal that a bull market is beginning.
Second, Will Clemente noted that the current correlation between Bitcoin and gold has reached an all-time high. This is significant, as bets on currency depreciation have resurged following Scott Bessent’s recent commitment to expand government spending.
This Glassnode chart shows the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold, with the correlation reaching a historical high in 2026, indicating that their price movements are currently highly synchronized and both are being treated as hedges against currency depreciation.
I consistently reiterate the classic viewpoint in the Bitcoin space: Bitcoin has no price ceiling, because the dollar has no value floor. U.S. government debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the government continues to recklessly erode the dollar’s purchasing power. As long as one thinks rationally, it’s clear this unchecked trend will persist.
Third, historically, Bitcoin’s price movements have tracked closely with broad money supply (M2), but recently the two have diverged significantly: M2 continues to expand, while Bitcoin’s price has declined. As a result, many have abandoned this indicator. However, similar large divergences have occurred multiple times in history, and whenever the gap between the two narrows again, Bitcoin’s price has consistently risen to catch up—not because M2 growth slows down.
This weekly chart compares Bitcoin (green) with M2 broad money supply (orange), showing two instances of price divergence: after Bitcoin’s sharp decline in 2022, it caught up as M2 rebounded; in 2026, Bitcoin again underperformed relative to money supply growth—historical patterns suggest Bitcoin is likely to rise to close this gap.
Fourth, I rarely rely solely on chart lines to predict the price movements of my portfolio, but this analysis from R89 Capital is highly convincing. Bitcoin appears to be initiating a rebound from the bottom of a key consolidation range, suggesting the potential for higher prices over the coming weeks and months.
This is the 4-hour K-line chart of Bitcoin drawn by R89 Capital, showing a rising channel pattern, which the firm interprets as a bullish signal, anticipating the price to move toward $90,000.
Ultimately, the core truth of investing in Bitcoin: holding long-term is far more effective than attempting to time the market repeatedly. Jeff John Robert shared a Bloomberg chart, writing: “Bitcoin’s investment logic is now similar to that of the S&P 500, with the vast majority of returns coming from just a few days of massive rallies. Selling and missing these upward windows would lead to significantly worse outcomes. This Bloomberg chart compares Bitcoin’s annual returns with and without its top ten best-performing trading days.”
This chart compares Bitcoin’s full-year returns with its returns after excluding the top ten performing trading days of the year, illustrating that the majority of Bitcoin’s gains come from a small number of explosive trading days—frequent market timing makes it easy to miss these critical opportunities.
The logic is actually quite simple. This Bitcoin bear market has been shorter and less severe compared to previous cycles. Don’t dwell on the past—the new bull market has already begun. Bitcoin is poised to rise significantly from its current price. However, market volatility will be intense, and such fluctuations are not suitable for investors with low risk tolerance. Those who thoroughly understand Bitcoin and hold through these turbulent swings are likely to reap substantial rewards.