Author: Fidelity Digital Assets
Compiled by: Jiahuan, ChainCatcher
Mid-year is a good opportunity to review the market, allowing investors to assess how market dynamics have changed and whether their年初 judgments still hold.
In 2026 Outlook, the Fidelity Digital Assets research team believes that this year’s key focus is not an immediate price surge, but a more subtle dynamic: the structural “reshaping” of the entire digital assets ecosystem. Although price performance has been uneven since the beginning of the year, a closer look reveals that several underlying trends are steadily advancing.
This article reviews the progress made since the key themes outlined in "The 2026 Outlook," highlighting which of our assessments have been validated, which have diverged, and what these developments may mean for the future.
1: Digital assets and capital markets are accelerating integration
We previously anticipated that the integration of digital assets with traditional capital markets would continue to advance by 2026. So far, this trend is indeed progressing, with some areas moving faster than expected.
Despite market volatility, demand for exposure to digital assets through mainstream financial channels remains strong, and traditional platforms continue to expand their product offerings.
Notably, open interest in spot Bitcoin ETP options—products that were only first introduced in November 2024—has now reached parity with options settled directly in Bitcoin, reflecting ongoing adoption by institutional and mainstream investors.
Momentum in the tokenization space is also growing, with activity appearing to surpass expectations. Traditional financial institutions are increasingly launching blockchain-based investment products, while major exchanges are partnering with or acquiring stakes in digital asset platforms to expand distribution channels and integrate with on-chain infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the regulatory landscape is becoming clearer. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have jointly issued guidelines establishing the classification of digital assets, and the progress of legislation such as the CLARITY Act means market participants will soon have a more defined framework.
Overall, these developments indicate that digital assets are continuing to integrate into the broader financial system, driven by market demand and infrastructure expansion.
2: Token holder rights are gradually attracting attention, but remain unclear
We anticipated that by 2026, token holders' alignment of interests would become tighter, with more on-chain businesses prioritizing mechanisms such as buybacks and clearer ownership.
So far, this direction has not changed, and experimentation across the ecosystem continues: from reserve-backed buyback dynamics (such as the Hyperliquid/USDC alliance) to governance and structural updates like the Aave DAO/Labs restructuring.
However, despite the growing adoption of these mechanisms, a clear "token holder rights premium" has not yet been fully reflected in market pricing. This trend is advancing but remains in its early stages, as investors are still evaluating which models can truly generate sustained value accumulation.
3: The Potential Shift of Artificial Intelligence in Mining
We previously suggested that increased competition for AI computing power could lead to a flattening of Bitcoin's hash rate growth, as miners redirect energy and infrastructure toward potentially more profitable ventures. This dynamic may be emerging this year: the 30-day average hash rate and mining difficulty have each declined by approximately 8.8% and 7.8%, respectively.
Although some of this can be attributed to seasonal factors, particularly winter-related power rationing, the recent recovery (a roughly 1.3% increase in hash rate from its low point and an 8.8% increase in difficulty) suggests that weather alone cannot fully explain this shift.
Looking at the longer-term trend, the rate of hash rate growth has slowed compared to previous years, which may be an early signal of structural change. The business of AI data centers is becoming increasingly profitable, especially for large operators with access to power infrastructure—this appears to be the likely driving force behind the shift.
Although still in the early stages, the observed slowdown in growth aligns with initial expectations and may reflect miners gradually shifting to other sources of income.
4: Bitcoin is at a new turning point
We previously anticipated that increasing the amount of data writable via the OP_RETURN opcode would not cause significant blockchain bloat (OP_RETURN is used for on-chain data storage, and since it requires transaction fees, relaxing its data limit did not lead to abuse or network congestion). So far, the data appears to support this assessment.
Usage of OP_RETURN with larger sizes (≥84 bytes) has remained largely unchanged, and overall blockchain growth continues to stay within the predicted range (approximately 1.35–2.5 MB). Other block utilization metrics show that capacity remains below 50%, indicating that increased data flexibility has not placed substantial pressure on the network.
Meanwhile, focus has shifted to broader network dynamics. Bitcoin Knots nodes have shown significant fluctuations, rapidly rising and then quickly falling, sparking speculation about potential Sybil-like activity.
Based on current data, Bitcoin Core nodes still account for approximately 77% of the network, while Knots nodes make up about 17%. Although still a minority, this presents a risk of an unintended fork—low in probability, but not zero: under certain conditions, Knots nodes could diverge into a stalled or less secure chain, which current estimates suggest could occur in approximately 80 days.
However, Core's dominant share remains anchored in network consensus. Meanwhile, momentum is building around long-term security upgrades. BIP-360 has been streamlined to introduce quantum-resistant output types (Pay-to-Merkle-Root, or P2MR); ongoing research into OP_CHECKSHRINCS reflects exploration of hash-based post-quantum signature schemes.
Although the exact timing of quantum threats remains uncertain, these developments indicate that the industry is increasingly prioritizing preparedness for the future security of the internet.
5: Shorts are temporarily in control
In January, we outlined two scenarios for a balanced bull-bear dynamic entering 2026, anticipating that macro conditions would lead to nonlinear price movements, despite improving structural fundamentals.
This year, bearish conditions have largely dominated: Bitcoin has dropped 13%, driven by deleveraging triggered by liquidations, persistently high inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty pushing the market toward expectations of further rate hikes. However, recent market performance reveals a more nuanced dynamic.
Following the initial sell-off triggered by recent geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin has rebounded and outperformed traditional assets during the same period, potentially reflecting market demand for highly liquid, neutral assets during times of stress.
Meanwhile, structural tailwinds remain in place, including the ongoing formation of institutional capital, gradual improvements in regulatory clarity, and expanding global liquidity.
Although the short-term environment remains constrained, our broader assessment still appears valid, albeit with uneven progress.
6: Gold remains strong—what’s next?
We previously noted that it was no surprise for gold to have another strong year, supported by central bank gold purchasing demand and the global gradual move away from the dollar system.
This year, gold initially rebounded nearly 30% amid geopolitical tensions, then retreated to a more modest gain of about 3–4%. Despite the pullback, gold may still outperform the broader market by year-end.
Evidence supporting a move away from the U.S. dollar system is also growing, including newly emerging alternative settlement methods, such as Iran accepting Bitcoin payments for tolls and transactions related to activities in the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, central banks' demand for gold remains strong. Recent data shows that accumulation continues, and notably, gold has surpassed the US dollar and US Treasuries as the primary component of global reserves.
Gold's performance and sustained central bank demand have largely aligned with our initial expectations; however, the strong performance we anticipated for Bitcoin has not yet materialized.
Conclusion: Build strength beneath the surface
As we reach mid-year, the digital assets landscape for 2026 reflects a balance between short-term pressures and long-term progress. Several themes from the Outlook are unfolding as expected, particularly in institutional participation, regulation, and infrastructure; others remain in early stages or have yet to fully materialize.
For investors, this suggests looking beyond short-term price fluctuations to see how structural shifts are taking shape. Many of the foundations supporting the next phase of growth appear to be strengthening, even if they haven’t fully emerged yet.