According to AiCoin, CME's 'FedWatch' tool shows an 84.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January 2026. The chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January is 15.5%. By March 2026, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut rises to 42.2%, with a 51.8% chance of no rate change and a 6.0% chance of a 50-basis-point cut.
Fed to Keep Rates Unchanged in January 2026 at 84.5% Probability
AiCoinShare
Summary
What is the outlook for Fed rate decisions in early 2026? AiCoin reports that CME's 'FedWatch' tool shows an 84.5% chance the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in January 2026. A 25-basis-point cut has a 15.5% probability. By March 2026, the odds of a 25-basis-point cut rise to 42.2%, while a 50-basis-point cut stands at 6.0%. Crypto markets will closely watch these developments.
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