ChainCatcher report: Next week, market focus will center on interest rate decisions from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Since his swearing-in as the new Fed Chair, Walsh has remained silent; the press conference following the June rate decision will be a critical test of his monetary policy stance. The market also anticipates clear signals from him regarding reforms to communication mechanisms. Below are the key events to watch next week (all times in Beijing Time): Monday, 15:15: ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech; Tuesday, TBA: Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision; 14:30: BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida holds a monetary policy press conference; Tuesday, 20:15: U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending May 30; Thursday, 02:00: Federal Reserve FOMC releases interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections; 02:30: Fed Chair Walsh holds a monetary policy press conference; Thursday, 20:30: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13; U.S. June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. On policy signals, the market is closely watching whether three hawkish signals from the Fed materialize: First, whether the wording in the previous policy statement—"the next move is likely to be a cut"—will be removed. If this phrase is deleted, it would signal the Fed’s formal abandonment of its previous dovish tilt in favor of a policy framework centered on combating inflation. Second, changes in the dot plot: The March dot plot indicated one rate cut for the year, but this round is likely to show rates held steady, or even a majority of officials anticipating rate hikes. Third, shifts in risk sentiment: If officials’ concerns about inflation rise significantly while worries about the labor market fade, it could pave the way for future rate increases. Friday, June 19: Due to Juneteenth, the New York Stock Exchange will be closed for one day. Trading for CME Group’s precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, equity index, and U.S. Treasury futures contracts will conclude early at 01:00 Beijing Time on June 20. Trading for ICE’s Brent crude oil futures contracts will conclude early at 01:30 Beijing Time on June 20.
Fed's Walsh to Make Policy Debut as Rate Decision Looms
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Summary
Market attention turns to central bank actions next week, with the Fed’s FOMC decision at the center. Regulatory policy shifts may influence Powell’s first major policy speech following the June rate decision. Investors are monitoring the Fed’s policy statement, press conference, and any removal of dovish language. BTC as an inflation hedge remains a key theme amid ongoing inflation concerns.
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