The Fed's probability of a September rate hike drops to 50%

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As of September 4, 2026, Fed data indicates a 50.2% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, with a 49.8% chance of no change. For October, the probabilities are 50.1% for a 25-basis-point hike, 35.5% for no change, and 14.5% for a 50-basis-point increase. The next FOMC meeting is approximately 12 days and 18 hours away. Traders are advised to monitor altcoins in light of shifting rate expectations.

BlockBeats news, September 4: According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged by September is 49.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 50.2%.


The probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady until October is 35.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 50.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 14.5%.


There are approximately 12 days and 18 hours until the next FOMC meeting.

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