Citing TechFlow, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its final interest rate decision of 2025 on Thursday (Beijing time). Market expectations are largely aligned, with over 85% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, according to CME FedWatch. However, the article argues that the cut itself is already priced in and unlikely to move markets significantly. The real focus lies in the Fed’s outlook for 2025 and 2026, particularly the updated dot plot and Powell’s press conference. With key inflation data delayed due to the recent U.S. government shutdown, the Fed’s guidance is expected to be less clear, increasing market uncertainty. The article outlines three possible scenarios for the FOMC meeting and their potential impacts on crypto and risk assets.
Fed's Policy Outlook, Not Rate Cut, to Drive Risk Assets This Week
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