Fed's Kashkari Says Inflation Still Needs to Be Tamed, Hints at One More Rate Hike in 2026

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On October 8, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1.2 trillion RMB outright reverse repurchase operation using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple-price winning approach.

2. Ministry of Commerce: Extends the investigation period into trade barriers related to U.S. measures.

3. National Development and Reform Commission: The allocated funding of RMB 250 billion in ultra-long-term special government bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones has been fully disbursed.

4. National Bureau of Statistics: In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.1%, entering the expansion zone.

5. Major steel mills in Hebei, Shandong, Tianjin, and other regions have officially confirmed the first round of price reductions for coke procurement.

6. The Silicon Industry Branch expects China's polysilicon production in October to decrease to approximately 105,000 tons, a monthly decline of about 12.9%.

7. Indonesia has raised the October crude palm oil reference price from $1,007.51 per ton in September to $1,042.15.

8. EIA report: For the week ending September 25, U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories fell to the lowest level since the week ending October 22, 1982.

9. USDA data shows that U.S. soybean ending stocks for the previous crop year were lower than market expectations and the same period last year.

10. Federal Reserve's Kashkari says inflation still needs to be contained, with one more rate hike expected this year.

1. The People's Bank of China announced that to maintain adequate liquidity in the banking system, on October 8, 2026, it will conduct a 1.2 trillion RMB outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of three months, maturing on January 5, 2027, using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple-price winning approach.

2. The Ministry of Commerce recently issued two announcements, each extending the deadline for the trade barrier investigation into U.S. practices that disrupt global production and supply chains and hinder trade in green products to December 27, 2026.

3. National Development and Reform Commission: The allocated funding of RMB 250 billion in ultra-long-term special government bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones has been fully disbursed.

4. National Bureau of Statistics: In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion zone.

5. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of September 30, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 3,662.30 points, a decrease of 24.32 points from the previous period. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) was at 1,923.93 points, up 0.3% from the previous period.

6. According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on Wednesday, inflation-adjusted personal spending rose 0.6% month-over-month in August, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2025.

7. The annual rate of the U.S. August core PCE price index came in at 3%, slightly declining from the previous month and reaching the lowest level since February, compared to the market expectation of 3.3%.

8. U.S. President Trump posted: "Today, I am pleased to announce that the last batch of U.S. troops are leaving Iraq! It has been a long process. We originally became involved in this mess due to a very poor decision made at the time, but soon, all of this will become history."

9. Federal Reserve's Kashkari stated that although recent data showed inflation below economists' expectations, rising prices remain a concern. Kashkari said, “Inflation is still too high. There are many different measures of inflation, but it is currently hovering around 3%. Inflation has been elevated for more than five years. I don’t believe the latest inflation data significantly changes this situation.” Regarding interest rates, Kashkari admitted, “My expectation is one more rate hike this year and another in 2027. Federal Reserve rate hikes are unlikely to have a major impact on investments in large-scale cloud computing companies. The recent rise in bond yields is a global phenomenon.”

10. According to Axios, a U.S. official and another knowledgeable person revealed that following the stalemate in U.S.-Iran negotiations, Rubio requested on Monday that Iran’s United Nations delegation immediately leave the United States. Although Iran’s delegation was already likely to depart soon, Rubio’s move constitutes a rare diplomatic rebuke and underscores the deep-seated mistrust between the U.S. and Iran amid prolonged failures to broker an end to the conflict.

1. The front-month U.S. crude oil contract rose 1.07% to $90.34 per barrel, up 9.82% for the month and 38.08% for the third quarter; the front-month Brent crude oil contract rose 1.79% to $97.88 per barrel, up 13.21% for the month and 49.63% for the third quarter.

2. International precious metals futures closed mixed: COMEX gold futures rose 0.22% to $4,189.10 per ounce, down 6.52% for the month and up 2.21% for the third quarter; COMEX silver futures fell 0.65% to $60.76 per ounce, down 9.31% for the month and up 0.17% for the third quarter.

3. Most base metals in London ended lower; LME tin rose 0.14% to $54,275.0 per ton, up 5.25% for the quarter; LME copper fell 0.23% to $14,405.0 per ton, up 7.7% for the quarter; LME nickel fell 0.24% to $15,920.0 per ton, down 2.25% for the quarter; LME aluminum fell 1.37% to $3,170.0 per ton, up 2.74% for the quarter; LME lead fell 1.40% to $1,871.5 per ton, down 0.19% for the quarter; LME zinc fell 1.41% to $3,815.5 per ton, up 7.43% for the quarter.

1. According to Yicai, the Shaanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission recently held a special meeting on stabilizing coal production and supply across the province. The meeting emphasized ensuring safety while fully supporting stable production and supply, minimizing unnecessary shutdowns, accelerating resumption of operations, and reducing shutdown durations to provide strong support for energy supply security.

2. According to Jiaolian Information, major steel mills in Hebei, Shandong, Tianjin, and other regions have officially confirmed their first round of price reductions for coke procurement: wet-quenched coke down by RMB 100/ton, dry-quenched coke down by RMB 110/ton, effective from 00:00 on October 1.

3. According to the latest survey by Mysteel, one additional coal mine in Qinyuan County, Changzhi City, has resumed production with an approved capacity of 9 million tons. Five more mines are scheduled to resume production in October, with a combined capacity of 48 million tons.

4. According to foreign media, due to increased shipping costs between Brazil and China, CSN Mining in Brazil has announced a temporary reduction in low-grade iron ore production and has lowered its 2026 production and procurement forecast to 39-41 million tons.

5. Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has approved approximately 95% of coal mining companies’ 2026 RKAB applications. ESDM expects Indonesia’s coal production in 2026 to be around 720 million tons.

6. According to data from Zhonggang Network, as of the week ending September 30, the national construction materials output was 4.2235 million tons, a decrease of 105,000 tons from the previous week; total inventory stood at 9.3028 million tons, down by 543,200 tons from the previous week; apparent demand was 4.7667 million tons, down by 328,500 tons from the previous week.

7. According to Mysteel, for the week ending September 30, rebar production was 1.7223 million tons, an increase of 68,800 tons from the previous week; social inventory was 4.1512 million tons, a decrease of 244,700 tons from the previous week; apparent demand was 1.9815 million tons, a decrease of 107,000 tons from the previous week.

8. According to Mysteel, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide is 164.1084 million tons, a decrease of 85,000 tons环比.

9. According to Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills, the blast furnace utilization rate is 81.53%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points week-over-week; the daily average pig iron output is 2.3379 million tons, down 18,700 tons week-over-week and 80,200 tons year-over-year.

1. EIA report: For the week ending September 25, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding strategic reserves, increased by 922,000 barrels to 427 million barrels, a 0.22% rise; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories decreased by 785,000 barrels to 283.8 million barrels, a 0.28% decline, the lowest level since the week ending October 22, 1982.

2. Documents show that Iraq’s State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) offered October contract crude oil supplies to buyers at discounts of up to $37 per barrel against regional benchmarks.

3. Latest data from the Fujairah Oil Industrial Zone in the UAE shows that as of the week ending September 28, total refined product inventories at the Fujairah port amounted to 8.216 million barrels, a decrease of 2.08 million barrels from the previous week.

4. According to Longzhong Information, as of September 30, 2026, China’s methanol port inventory totaled 393,500 tons, a decrease of 18,500 tons from the previous period. China’s methanol sample producer inventory stood at 281,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from the previous period, representing a month-over-month growth of 6.22%.

5. According to the Financial Times of the UK: President Trump has held crisis consultations with advisors to discuss whether to impose a diesel export ban or take other measures to curb the fuel crisis.

6. The Russian government stated on Wednesday that it has extended the diesel export ban on fuel producers until the end of October.

1. According to the Silicon Industry Association, domestic polysilicon production in September was approximately 120,400 metric tons, a 1.3% month-over-month increase, with a net addition of 1,450 metric tons. Based on production schedules, total domestic polysilicon output in October is expected to decrease to around 105,000 metric tons, representing a month-over-month decline of approximately 12.9%.

2. According to tracking and monitoring by Baichuan Yingfu, in October 2026, multiple polysilicon manufacturers responded to production cut calls by reducing their monthly production plans, with output declining from 116,000 metric tons in September to 91,600 metric tons in October.

3. Data released by Chile’s National Statistics Institute (INE) on Wednesday showed that copper production in August fell 13% year-over-year to 369,500 metric tons, the lowest monthly output since February 2011.

4. According to Korean media MoneyToday, the Bank of Korea will purchase 1 ton of gold produced domestically in December, marking its first physical gold purchase in 13 years.

5. According to Mysteel, as of September, the lithium ore inventory of 19 overseas mining lithium salt producers amounted to 435,000 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons month-over-month.

6. According to data released by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global alumina production in August 2026 was 13.178 million tons, with a daily average output of 425,100 tons; alumina production for July was revised to 13.024 million tons.

1. October 1, 22:00, U.S. September ISM Manufacturing PMI;

2. October 2 at 3:00 AM, USDA Oilseeds Crush Report for the United States;

3. On October 2 at 20:30, the U.S. non-farm payroll employment and unemployment rate for September, seasonally adjusted.

4. On October 4, OPEC+ will hold the JMMC and the seven-nation monthly production meeting.