BlockBeats news, on July 23, Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the "voice of the Fed," said the Fed’s monetary policy meeting on July 28–29 will be the most difficult to predict in recent years. Rising oil prices, increased risks from U.S. tariff policies, and public shifts by some officials toward supporting rate hikes are challenging the consensus that rates will remain unchanged.
According to CME data, market expectations for a July rate hike have risen from around 10% last weekend to approximately one-third. There was already significant divergence among the 18 Fed officials regarding whether a rate hike this year is necessary—half expected at least a 25-basis-point increase, while the other half believed no adjustment was needed. Since taking office, new Chair Walsh has deliberately remained silent, refusing to provide forward guidance, leaving investors to guess the policy direction solely based on statements from other officials.