Odaily Planet Daily reports: The Federal Reserve maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00% last week, while acknowledging that inflation remains elevated. The market currently expects the Fed may further raise interest rates in December.
Investment analyst Michael Kramer believes that if the October employment report roughly meets expectations and the unemployment rate does not rise significantly, market perceptions of the Fed’s policy path are unlikely to change substantially. However, if job growth significantly exceeds forecasts, unemployment declines, and wage growth remains strong, investors may begin reassessing how many more rate hikes the Fed still needs to implement and whether current market expectations for the terminal rate are adequate.
According to MarketWatch, since January 2025, non-farm payroll data has exceeded market expectations 11 times and fallen short 10 times, with an average deviation between actual and forecasted figures reaching tens of thousands of jobs.