Foreign media report that markets are reassessing the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September, adding new macroeconomic pressure to Bitcoin’s current rally. The article suggests that institutional buying driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs is changing how the crypto market responds to interest rate changes, but whether this support will endure depends on how funds behave once a rate hike is actually implemented.
Expectations for a September rate hike have significantly increased.
According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the FOMC meeting on September 15–16 has risen to over 66%, a significant increase from before the Jackson Hole meeting. The report notes that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh expressed concern about inflation in his Jackson Hole speech, prompting the market to quickly adjust its expectations for the interest rate path.
The article also noted that Barclays has revised its 2026 interest rate outlook to include one rate hike in September and another in December. Previously, the market focused more on when rate cuts might occur; now, attention has shifted to whether further tightening will take place this year—a shift in expectations that itself affects risk asset pricing.
Oil prices are renewing upward pressure on inflation.
The report suggests that the recent rise in oil prices is one of the key factors driving the rebound in interest rate hike expectations. Following escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude briefly rose above $91 per barrel, while WTI climbed above $86. The upward pressure on energy prices has further complicated the challenge of bringing inflation down.
The article cites data showing that U.S. PCE inflation stood at 3.7% year-over-year and 4.1% on a six-month annualized basis, both significantly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. If inflation remains elevated, the likelihood of the Fed maintaining a tighter monetary policy stance increases.
ETF funds serve as a key support
The article argues that the key difference between this round of Bitcoin price movement and that of 2022 is that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a new source of incremental buying demand. In August, Bitcoin rose approximately 25%, reclaiming a price of $78,000; during the same period, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $3.52 billion, with net inflows occurring on 16 out of 21 trading days.
- In August, Bitcoin rose by approximately 25%.
- Spot ETF monthly net inflows of $3.52 billion
- 16 out of 21 trading days recorded net inflows.
The text states that supporters argue a significant portion of ETF holders are institutional funds that operate according to allocation weights. These funds typically rebalance based on portfolio weights and do not fully follow short-term sentiment-driven trading, potentially providing more stable demand during market volatility.
The real test comes after the rate hike is implemented.
However, the article also notes that ETF funds are not immune to outflows. In the first half of 2026, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of $5.29 billion, as Bitcoin’s price declined from $94,000 to $63,000. This demonstrates that institutional capital does not inherently hedge against declines but instead adjusts positions in response to changing market conditions.
The report suggests that if an interest rate hike occurs in September, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields could rise further, raising the return threshold for risk assets. For institutions that view Bitcoin as part of their risk asset allocation, this could mean a slowdown in new capital inflows and potential reductions in exposure.
The core assessment is that ETFs have indeed transformed the Bitcoin market structure, but it is not yet sufficient to prove that Bitcoin has escaped the influence of interest rate cycles. The strong rebound in August indicates continued demand for capital inflows, but the true stress test will come after the interest rate hike announcement.