Fed Rate Decision in July Harder to Predict Amid Rising Oil Prices and Tariff Risks

Huoxing Finance reports that on July 23, Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the "voice of the Fed," stated that the Fed’s monetary policy meeting on July 28–29 will be the most difficult to predict in recent years. Rising oil prices, increasing risks from U.S. tariff policies, and growing public support for rate hikes from some officials are challenging the consensus that rates will remain unchanged. CME Group data shows market expectations for a July rate hike have risen from around 10% last weekend to approximately one-third. Among the Fed’s 18 officials, there is already significant disagreement over whether a rate hike is needed this year—half expect at least a 25-basis-point increase, while the other half believe no adjustment is necessary. New Chair Walsh has deliberately remained silent since taking office, refusing to provide forward guidance, leaving investors to guess policy direction based solely on statements from other officials.