Probability of FED October Rate Hike Approaches 50%

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As of September 17, 2026, the CFT landscape indicates a 50.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates at 3.75%-4.00% in October, with a 49.8% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. By December, the probability of a 25-basis-point increase rises to 50.1%, while a 50-basis-point hike stands at 38.6%. Market participants are closely monitoring how these moves impact liquidity and crypto markets.

PANews, September 17: According to CME's "FedWatch," after the Fed's expected rate hike in September, the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate at 3.75%-4.00% at its October meeting is 50.2%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is 49.8%. The probability of the Fed holding the rate steady at 3.75%-4.00% by December is 11.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 50.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 38.6%.

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