ChainThink reports that, as of July 9, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady in July is currently 65.3%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 34.7%. Current data indicates that the market still favors the Fed maintaining its current rates at the July meeting.
Fed raises rates by 25 bps in July with 34.7% probability
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Summary
According to CME’s FedWatch as of July 9, 2026, there is a 34.7% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike in July, with a 65.3% probability that rates will remain unchanged. Market positioning suggests a likely pause in rate action at the upcoming meeting.
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