BlockBeats news: On September 17, the Federal Reserve's latest economic projections showed that the median forecast for PCE inflation for 2026, 2027, and 2028 was revised upward to 3.7%, 2.3%, and 2.1%, compared to the June forecasts of 3.6%, 2.3%, and 2.0%; the median forecast for core PCE inflation was 3.4%, 2.5%, and 2.2%.
Regarding employment, the median projected unemployment rate for 2026 through 2028 is 4.1% in each year, below the June projections of 4.3%, 4.3%, and 4.2%. The median GDP growth projections are now 2.3%, 2.4%, and 2.2% for those years, compared to previous estimates of 2.2%, 2.3%, and 2.2%. Additionally, the median projections for 2029 are 2.1% GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate.
The Fed’s latest dot plot shows that 18 of 19 officials submitted dot plot forecasts (consistent with June), with 16 of them predicting another rate hike this year. Specifically, four officials forecast a cumulative rate hike of 75 basis points by 2026 (up from one in June), twelve officials forecast a cumulative hike of 50 basis points (up from five in June), two officials forecast a cumulative hike of 25 basis points (down from three in June), zero officials forecast keeping rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% this year (down from eight in June), and zero officials forecast a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points (down from one in June).