Kevin Warsh is expected to avoid giving interest rate forecasts during his first major Fed speech.
Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, making price stability Warsh's top policy priority.
Analysts believe Warsh wants markets to focus on economic data instead of future Fed guidance.
All eyes are on newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who is set to deliver his first international speech at the European Central Bank’s annual policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, on July 1.
While investors often expect Fed chairs to provide hints about future rate cuts, Warsh is likely to do the opposite. Here’s what to expect from his speech.
No Rate Forecast, Just Economic Data
Unlike previous Fed chairs like Jerome Powell, who used to frequently guide markets toward future rate decisions. Warsh, in his first FED rate cut meeting, has already indicated that he wants to reduce the Fed’s dependence on forward guidance.
Thus, industry experts expect him to avoid giving any clear interest rate forecast, forcing investors to focus on incoming economic data rather than trying to decode Fed messaging.
Warsh has already confirmed there will be no immediate change to federal interest rates, but beyond that, markets shouldn’t expect much policy guidance.
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool predicts a 66.3% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in July, while assigning roughly a 66.9% chance of at least one quarter-point rate increase by September.
Inflation Likely to Remain His Top Priority
Another key thing to expect from his speech is a focus on inflation. Inflation has cooled from previous highs, but it remains close to 3.6%, still well above the Federal Reserve’s long-term 2% target.
Based on Warsh’s recent comments, he is expected to bring inflation under control, which remains the Fed’s primary objective, even if that means keeping interest rates higher for longer.
He is also reviewing several parts of the Fed’s framework, including how it communicates with markets, inflation targeting, and the data it uses to make policy decisions.
What This Means For Crypto Investors
Warsh’s first speech comes at a difficult time for crypto markets. When the total crypto market has lost nearly $600 billion, falling to roughly $2.04 trillion.
Bitcoin has slipped below $59,000, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record heavy outflows, including $222 million on 30 June.
At the same time, more than $136 million in leveraged Bitcoin long positions have recently been liquidated.