The backlog jumped from about 166,000 ETH on Sept. 29 to roughly 851,000 ETH by Oct. 2, a more than fivefold increase in three days. Around 786,000 ETH remained queued Monday, implying an exit wait of nearly two weeks.
At first glance, that looks like a major source of potential selling pressure for ETH, which is trading around $2,700. But the reason behind the surge, and what is happening on the other side of the staking system makes the setup considerably less bearish.
MetaMask Caused Most of the Exit Spike
Most of the increase came from MetaMask withdrawing validators as a precaution after a security incident affecting part of its staking infrastructure.
An estimated 17,000 validators controlling roughly 523,000 ETH were involved, although MetaMask has not confirmed that figure. The company said its investigation found no evidence that wallets or customer funds were affected.
That matters because these withdrawals may not represent investors preparing to sell.
Lido expects the affected ETH to be gradually restaked, with the entire process potentially taking around 45 days. The situation therefore looks different from a broad validator exodus driven by collapsing confidence.
It also contrasts sharply with Ethereum’s recent staking trend, which pushed more than 35% of ETH supply into validators earlier this year.
1.5 Million ETH Is Still Waiting to Enter
The opposite queue is even larger.
Around 1.5 million ETH, worth roughly $4 billion, was waiting to begin staking Monday, with an estimated wait of about 25 days. That is down from approximately 2 million ETH in early September but still almost twice the amount currently waiting to exit.
The imbalance supports the broader supply squeeze argument: large amounts of ETH remain committed to staking while exchange reserves have also fallen.
ETH Still Needs $2,800
The staking data does not remove Ethereum’s immediate technical problem.
ETH has repeatedly struggled around $2,800, making that the key breakout level before another attempt at $3,000. Coinpaper’s latest ETH setup similarly identified $2,775-$2,825 as the main resistance zone.
Citi recently raised its 12-month Ethereum target to $3,028, up from $2,240, citing stronger crypto activity, better macro conditions and renewed institutional participation.