Written by Cathy, Baihua Blockchain
On August 4, a bomb related to Ethereum quietly surfaced on the forum.
Justin Drake, along with five core developers, submitted a proposal titled EIP-8363: when the staking rate reaches 50%, the protocol ceases issuing new rewards to validators, and all consensus layer rewards are burned.
In 48 hours, the deadline for finalizing the Hegoá upgrade candidate proposal at the Core Developers Meeting will be reached.
The entire ecosystem had only two days to absorb this monumental monetary policy shift. The forum exploded instantly, with core members from Aave, Lido, and ether.fi all launching coordinated attacks.
01 What exactly is this proposal proposing to burn?
Currently, over 40 million ETH are staked on Ethereum, accounting for 33% of the total supply, with a net inflow of 1.75 million ETH per month. The rise of liquid staking tokens, the maturation of institutional staking infrastructure, and the regulatory compliance of spot ETFs are collectively accelerating staking growth.
The issue is that the current issuance curve has no brake. Even if all ETH in the world were staked, the base yield for validators would still be 1.5%. As long as someone believes this yield covers the risk, the total amount staked will grow indefinitely.
Justin Drake believes 30 million is sufficient to secure the network, while Vitalik thinks even 15 million would be enough. With 40 million currently, there is at least twice as much as needed.
The solution to EIP-8363 is an increasing burn curve: the higher the staking amount, the greater the proportion of rewards burned. At a 50% staking rate, all rewards are burned, resulting in zero net yield. Beyond this point, validators can only rely on transaction priority fees and MEV for income.
The proposal does not expect the rate to actually stabilize at 50%. Validators still bear hardware costs, slashing risks, and liquidity lock-ups, so the market will demand a positive premium, naturally bringing the equilibrium point to a lower level.
In simple terms, it’s an automatically tightening faucet.
Originally intended to prevent centralization, the first to die are independent stakers.
The consensus layer issuance accounts for 93% of validators' total income. Eliminating this component appears equitable on paper for all nodes, but in practice, it precisely targets small capital holders.
The cost of running a node is fixed: hardware, bandwidth, electricity, and operational time. Large service providers spread these costs across tens of thousands of validators, driving the marginal cost close to zero. Individual home stakers must bear the full cost with a single node requiring 32 ETH.
Independent stakers currently account for only 5.4% of total network staking and are steadily declining. Their combined returns have dropped from 2.86% to 1.48%, nearly halved, making them the first to fall below the break-even point. The last remaining adherents to Ethereum’s decentralized ethos will be economically eradicated.
Opponents used models to project a more ironic future: on-chain LST users are highly sensitive to yields and will flee at the slightest drop. But exchanges like Coinbase have extremely low operating costs and are tied to large pools of ETF clients who are not yield-sensitive. Four years from now, Coinbase could independently control over 33% of the network’s staked supply. The centralization the proposal aims to prevent is instead being accelerated.
A more subtle threat comes from MEV.
Consensus issuance has been reduced, passively increasing MEV's weight in total revenue. Model calculations show that when staking reaches 48 million, MEV's share rises from 7% to 19%; at 54 million, it approaches 30%.
MEV distribution is extremely uneven. Independent nodes may go months without any rewards, while large mining pools easily smooth out variance through their large number of validators.
Most MEV-Boost relays currently in the market comply with OFAC sanctions lists and exhibit censorship tendencies. When base rewards are sufficient, validators can afford to prioritize neutral relays, sacrificing some profit to uphold decentralization ideals.
But when MEV becomes a matter of survival, choosing a censoring relay is no longer a moral choice—it’s a business imperative.
The proposal aimed to preserve network neutrality but significantly raised the financial barrier to maintaining it—completely counterproductive.
There’s another tax trap. The transition period is designed as “double the accounting reward, then burn half.” In the U.S., U.K., and Germany, staking rewards are taxable income as soon as they are received. This doubles the taxable base for validators, resulting in lower net take-home gains despite the higher nominal reward. Aave founder Stani Kulechov directly called it out: this forces compliant home nodes out at the protocol level.
The foundation of DeFi Lego is loosening
Ethereum's staking yield is regarded as the "risk-free benchmark rate" for the entire DeFi ecosystem. All lending protocols, liquidity pool strategies, and interest-bearing asset pricing are strictly anchored to this benchmark. Remove the cornerstone, and the entire LEGO tower will be repriced.
LST protocols hold over $42 billion in assets and rely on taking a 10% cut of staking rewards to operate. With yields halved, protocol revenues are forcibly cut in half, drastically reducing the capacity to reinvest in security audits and infrastructure maintenance. Once investors determine that a 1% yield cannot compensate for smart contract and depegging risks, massive capital will sell off LSTs in exchange for native ETH, triggering a discount spiral.
The more direct impact is on leveraged cycles. Many institutions engage in leveraged cycles on Aave: depositing stETH, borrowing WETH, swapping it back for stETH, and depositing again. Under E-Mode, leverage exceeds 10x.
This strategy assumes that staking rewards exceed borrowing rates. The base yield has dropped from 2.6% to 1.2%, while borrowing rates have remained at 1.5% in the short term. The spread has turned from a positive 1.1 percentage points to a negative 0.3 percentage points.
The printing press has become a daily loss machine.
Collective deleveraging implies massive selling of stETH. Liquidity pools dry up, collateral values shrink and breach liquidation thresholds, triggering a cascade of liquidations. The severe depegging of stETH seen during the 2022 Terra collapse could unfold again.
04 Solana is waiting nearby
If Ethereum’s on-chain yield drops to zero while stablecoin yields remain at 4% to 5%, the rational move is to use ETH as collateral to borrow and buy high-yield stablecoins. ETH becomes the yen of the zero-interest-rate era—specifically used for borrowing.
Meanwhile, Solana’s native staking yield exceeds 5%, and the Alpenglow upgrade aims to reduce block finality from 12.8 seconds to approximately 150 milliseconds. Wall Street is already applying for Solana ETFs with staking rewards.
Ethereum has attracted tens of billions of dollars in institutional capital through ETFs. These funds are drawn to its predictable, steady cash flow, which Wall Street has dubbed the "Internet Bond." EIP-8363 nullifies this "coupon" through a mechanism outside the control of holders. No institution will underwrite a financial instrument whose coupon can be eliminated by someone else's actions.
The reduction in annual issuance of approximately $1 billion could come at the cost of hundreds of billions in institutional net inflows disappearing.
Aave DAO representative Marc Zeller publicly called on Lido, Aave, and ether.fi to form an alliance, threatening to "directly reject EIP-8363" if necessary. Greg Koumoutsos, author of EIP-8148, questioned whether the proposal was intended to be pushed through the upgrade within a feedback window of less than 48 hours. Idealistic researchers and builders managing hundreds of billions in real capital have now come into direct conflict at Ethereum’s governance table.
Ethereum does need a staking brake mechanism. However, before having comprehensive safeguards in place to address LST depegging, institutional capital flight, and validator centralization, abruptly applying the brake may cause more harm than the issues it aims to solve.
Two days to digest a monetary revolution. This question has no standard answer.


