Ethereum May Still Face $1.15K Bottom Risk Despite Being 'Cheap'

Since February, Ethereum has been ‘cheap’ after the price slipped below its overall cost basis of $2.3K. This means more holders are at a loss, which reduces selling pressure and downside risks.

However, crypto analytic firm CryptoQuant cautioned that a durable bottom could still be elusive in the medium term. According to the firm, the final market cycle bottom could happen if ETH tags $1.15K, citing a 2022 pattern based on the Realized Price Bands metric.

During the 2022 bear market cycle, the altcoin marked a true bottom after hitting the lower band of the metric (dotted green line).

Assuming the projection turns positive, it implies the durable ETH bottom could be feasible if it drops 38% from the press time value of $1,885.

There were three other signals relative to Bitcoin that showed ETH was still far from hitting its final floor price.

First, the relative selling pressure on ETH based on the ETH/BTC Exchange Inflows Ratio was only halfway to the level that marked the prior market bottom (green zone).

As of writing, the metric reading was at 0.8 while it dropped to 0.4 during the 2020 and 2025 bottoms.

Secondly, another valuation metric, the ETH/BTC MVRV, is also halfway from hitting the bottom levels seen in the 2020 cycle and the 2025 local market bottoms.

In the two periods, ETH reversed after slipping to 0.025 oversold territory (green). As of writing, the metric was slightly above 0.05, implying it is still far from flagging the past market bottom signal.

Similarly, relative ETH/BTC ETF holdings turned positive in H2 for the first time since last year. Although the ETF demand was improving, it didn’t drop to the levels seen in 2025.

Overall, only spot volumes and Ethereum [ETH] realized price bands showed the altcoin was undervalued and close to past bottom territories. CryptoQuant concluded,

But MVRV and exchange inflows are not yet at the extremes that have historically confirmed a floor. So a final bottom, and the ETH outperformance that would follow, may still take more time to form.

That said, with over 41 million ETH supply in loss, nearly a similar amount has been staked, marking a record 33% staking ratio. Whether the strong staking demand will further lower downside risk remains to be seen.

• Three key metrics showed that ETH may be far from a durable bottom despite being cheap below $2K.
• Staking demand hit a record high in 2026 with over 40M ETH currently staked and over 2.5M ETH on the waiting list.