SpaceX went public as SPCX in June 2026, and the stock market immediately started doing what it does best: worrying about what comes next. In this case, “what comes next” is roughly 6.4 billion shares controlled by Elon Musk becoming eligible for sale in mid-2027, a supply overhang large enough to reshape the entire trading landscape for the newly public rocket company.
Musk’s shares are locked up under a strict 366-day restriction that keeps him from selling until June 12-13, 2027.
The staggered unlock is already making waves
SpaceX didn’t dump all its restricted shares onto the market at once. The company’s IPO prospectus laid out a staggered release schedule tied to quarterly earnings reports from Q2 2026 through Q2 2027.
The first major unlock hit on August 6, 2026, when approximately 911.5 million shares from non-Musk holders became available for trading. That batch represented roughly 20% of certain restricted holdings, and depending on share price fluctuations at the time, carried a market value somewhere between $98 billion and $116 billion.
The market’s reaction to that first unlock wasn’t exactly calm. SPCX shares have experienced declines ranging from 30% to 46% at various points post-IPO, with much of the selling pressure attributed to investor anxiety about upcoming unlock events.
Musk’s stake, along with other extended lockup groups, accounts for over 60% of all pre-IPO shares that remain restricted until mid-2027.
Musk’s control stays intact regardless
Even if Musk eventually sells a portion of his holdings, his grip on SpaceX isn’t going anywhere. His approximately 42% economic ownership translates into over 85% voting power, thanks to supervoting Class B shares that give him outsized control relative to his economic stake.
This dual-class structure is a familiar playbook from founders like Mark Zuckerberg at Meta and Larry Page at Alphabet. It lets Musk raise capital and eventually monetize his position without ceding decision-making authority over Starlink deployments, Starship development, or any other SpaceX initiative.
What investors are watching
The central tension for SPCX holders is straightforward: more shares available for trading means more liquidity, which is generally good, but it also means potential oversupply, which can crush prices. Uber’s first lockup expiration in 2019 saw shares drop about 6% in a single session. Palantir experienced similar pressure.
The 911.5 million shares released in August gave the market a preview. If that relatively smaller tranche correlated with the significant post-IPO declines already observed, the June 2027 unlock, involving billions more shares, could amplify those dynamics considerably.