East African Mobile Payment Giant Caught Between Government Control and Black Market

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M-Pesa is struggling with shifting market performance in Ethiopia after Ethio Telecom blocked its data access in December 2025. The mobile payment giant had launched M-PESA LeHulum to expand financial inclusion, but the government quickly intervened. Ethio Telecom, with 5480 million users and 90% market share, sees M-Pesa as a growing threat. Safaricom faces high licensing costs and unfavorable settlement rules, limiting profitability. In Kenya, M-Pesa’s rapid growth has led to rising fraud and gambling. Unregulated platforms are also being used for smuggling and trafficking. Investors like Vodacom and Sumitomo are watching closely as political risks affect the region’s market cap.
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