There’s a certain irony in the CEO of a company spending up to $300M on prediction markets telling people to stop betting on prediction markets. But Jason Robins wants you to know there’s a difference.
During DraftKings’ Q2 2026 earnings call on August 7, Robins took aim at the growing practice of wagering on what executives will say during corporate earnings presentations. His verdict: it “probably should not be out there.”
The buzzword betting game
While Robins was speaking, prediction market platform Kalshi was running live contracts on the very call he was conducting. Traders could bet on whether specific terms would come up during the presentation, turning a routine corporate event into something resembling a drinking game with financial stakes.
Kalshi markets showed a 96% probability that “World Cup” would be mentioned during the call. Contracts on whether Robins would say “competitor” ranged from 68% to 89% probability. Bets on whether he’d utter “super app” or “combo” traded at lower percentages.
DraftKings’ prediction market paradox
DraftKings has earmarked $200M to $300M for its predictions business in 2026. The company views prediction markets as a significant growth opportunity alongside its core sportsbook operations. Robins himself has previously characterized prediction contracts as a major business pillar for the company’s future.
So the distinction Robins is drawing isn’t about prediction markets broadly. It’s about a specific subset: wagers tied to the mundane mechanics of corporate communications. Whether a CEO says “synergy” or “headwinds” during a 45-minute call isn’t exactly the kind of informed forecasting that prediction market advocates typically champion.
The company’s Q2 2026 earnings guidance projects $6.5B to $6.9B in revenue and $700M to $900M in adjusted EBITDA.
Why earnings call betting raises flags
The concern isn’t entirely philosophical. Betting on specific words during an earnings call creates unusual incentive structures. If a market exists on whether a CEO will say “recession,” that CEO now has a theoretical reason to choose different language, or a theoretical reason to include the word deliberately. Neither outcome serves the purpose of transparent corporate communication.
There’s also an information asymmetry problem. People inside a company, or those who have reviewed prepared remarks, would have a meaningful edge in these markets. Traditional insider trading rules apply to material financial information, but it’s unclear how regulators would treat advance knowledge of a CEO’s vocabulary choices.
Kalshi has been pushing the boundaries of what prediction markets can cover since receiving regulatory approval from the CFTC. The platform has listed contracts on everything from weather events to political outcomes. Earnings call terminology represents yet another expansion of that frontier.