Uncertainty Over Resumption of Oil Flows Through the Strait of Hormuz

Huo Huo Finance reports that on August 27, crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are slowly recovering, but a significant gap remains between increased loading by Gulf oil producers and actual imports into Asia, leaving market participants skeptical about the authenticity of the supply recovery. Currently, traders estimate that approximately 6 to 8 million barrels of crude oil per day are passing through the Strait of Hormuz—about half the pre-conflict level. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait have all recently seen a rebound in loading activity, with Iraq’s daily loading capacity briefly exceeding pre-conflict levels. However, some crude still needs to be transshipped via ports such as Sohar in Oman and Fujairah in the UAE; increased loading does not necessarily mean the crude has reached Asian buyers. Kpler data shows that Asia’s projected crude imports for August are 23.12 million barrels per day, roughly 14% lower than the three-month average of 26.91 million barrels per day before the conflict. India’s crude imports for August are expected to total only 4.51 million barrels per day, with approximately 1.45 million barrels per day coming from the Middle East—just half the pre-conflict average. Additionally, Middle Eastern crude arriving in Asia in August is estimated at 11.11 million barrels per day, up from 10.76 million barrels per day in July but still nearly 30% below the pre-conflict level of 15.82 million barrels per day. Analysts believe the current gap between loading and arrivals may partly reflect transportation delays, and data over the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the Strait of Hormuz supply has truly recovered.