BlockBeats news: On August 4, SpaceX is set to release its first earnings report since going public. According to BIT (bit.com) market data, its stock price has nearly halved from its 52-week high of $201.80 to $115. Ahead of the earnings release, Deutsche Bank maintained its "Buy" rating on SPCX with a $255 price target. Through a sum-of-the-parts valuation stress test, Deutsche Bank indicated that the space business—referencing Blue Origin’s recent $130 billion external valuation—should command a 3x to 5x premium based on SpaceX’s launch frequency and Starship progress, translating to a valuation of $39 billion to $65 billion; and the Starlink business—valued at an expected EV/EBITDA range for 2027, corresponding to $74.8 billion to $95.6 billion—combined for a midpoint valuation of approximately $1.35 trillion, roughly in line with its current market cap of about $1.4 trillion. This implies the market is pricing SpaceX’s AI business at nearly zero. Deutsche Bank explicitly stated that this valuation is overly punitive and inconsistent with the clear potential scale of SpaceX’s AI business.
JPMorgan previously assigned SPCX a "Buy" rating with a $225 price target, estimating that SpaceX's revenue will grow at a compound annual rate of 91% from $19 billion to $470 billion between 2025 and 2030.
Deutsche Bank expects SpaceX's Q2 revenue to reach $6.671 billion, a 64% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EBITDA exceeding $2.1 billion. AI business has become the largest growth driver, with revenue forecast to double quarter-over-quarter to $1.876 billion, primarily driven by a new cloud services agreement with Anthropic; Starlink's broadband subscriber base is expected to reach 12.5 million by quarter-end, with revenue growing over 50% year-over-year to nearly $4 billion.
The current maximum tactical pressure comes from lock-up expirations: approximately 912 million shares will unlock starting August 6, followed by an additional 300 million shares every 15 to 20 days thereafter, with another 1.3 billion shares set to be released around the Q3 earnings report. Deutsche Bank believes the stock price could stabilize after the lock-up period, especially if major government or sovereign AI partnerships are announced at that time, providing a positive catalyst.
The four key focus areas of SpaceX's earnings report include: the cadence of subsequent Starship launches and whether second-stage tower recovery can be achieved; the selection of a U.S. terrestrial mobile network roadmap; AI business variables (Grok iterations, Cursor integration, reports that Google is treating SpaceX's computing power as a transitional bridge only, and progress in negotiations with the U.S. government); and Musk's cautious remarks regarding merger matters during Tesla's earnings call.