CXTECH surges 471% on listing, Nomura sets 116 RMB target

According to Chaoxiang Research, ChangXin Technologies listed on the STAR Market on July 27, opening with a 471% surge and briefly reaching a market capitalization of over RMB 3.3 trillion. On the same day, Nomura Securities released its inaugural coverage report, assigning a "Buy" rating with a target price of RMB 116, representing a 20x P/E multiple based on an estimated 2028 EPS of RMB 5.8. This implies more than a 12-fold upside from the issuance price of RMB 8.66. Nomura noted that AI is driving structural demand surges in DRAM, with AI memory demand expected to grow at a CAGR exceeding 60% from 2026 to 2030, while global supply growth is projected at only 30% to 40%, leading to a widening supply-demand gap. As the world’s fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer, ChangXin currently holds approximately 10% of the global market share and is expected to rise to 18% by the end of 2028, approaching Micron’s scale. In Q1 2026, revenue reached RMB 50.8 billion (+719% YoY), with attributable net profit of RMB 24.76 billion (+1,688% YoY)—single-quarter profits already surpassing full-year 2025 earnings. Nomura believes ChangXin deserves a "China premium," with its 20x P/E valuation derived from the midpoint between Micron’s historical average P/E of 10x and the 1x to 3x valuation differential between U.S. and Chinese semiconductor equipment stocks. On the same day, Northeast Securities provided a valuation range of RMB 3.2 to 5.7 trillion, while Nomura’s RMB 7.76 trillion estimate is more optimistic—the core divergence lies in differing views on ChangXin’s long-term market share ceiling.