CXMT DRAM production peaks in 2025, prices surge in 2026

Huo Xing Finance reports that analysis indicates CXMT, China’s leading DRAM manufacturer, reached a monthly wafer output peak of approximately 240,000 units by the end of 2025 and is expected to remain flat in 2026. Its capacity expansion has been constrained due to tighter U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment, particularly EUV lithography machines; meaningful expansion is unlikely before 2027 and depends on progress in domestic equipment supply chains. According to Goldman Sachs data, CXMT’s coverage of domestic DRAM demand is projected to be only about 41% in 2026 and around 50% in 2028, reflecting a multi-year structural bottleneck. TrendForce data shows that traditional DRAM contract prices rose 90%-95% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026 and increased another 58%-63% in Q2; Jefferies forecasts further increases of 40%-50% in Q3 and 30%-40% in Q4. Server DRAM prices have risen even more sharply, with Samsung and SK Hynix proposing price hikes of 60%-70% for Q1 2026 to customers such as Microsoft and Google. S&P Global estimates Samsung’s traditional DRAM revenue per bit will rise 116% year-over-year in 2026 to $0.79, while Micron’s ASP will increase 54% to $1.06; Bernstein forecasts SK Hynix’s DRAM gross margin could reach 92.7% in Q4 2026. Multiple analysts expect meaningful supply relief to emerge no earlier than late 2027 or even 2028.