CryptoQuant analyst predicts BTC to remain in the $57,700–$67,000 range in August.

Huo Xing Finance reports that on August 5, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released his August Bitcoin market outlook, noting that BTC has retraced approximately 50% from its cycle high of $126,200 set in October 2025 and is now approaching the on-chain composite cost basis, suggesting a likely range-bound movement throughout August. The report identifies the most probable scenario (55% probability) as BTC trading between $57,700 and $67,000, with a potential month-end close between $60,000 and $64,000. The bearish scenario (30% probability) involves a break below $57,700, with further testing of the on-chain realized price near $52,800. The bullish scenario (15% probability) requires sustained holding above $67,000, accompanied by continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, declining U.S. Treasury yields, and a weaker dollar, targeting a price range of $71,000 to $74,000. Current valuations near the on-chain cost zone, along with ongoing net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, provide market support; however, the high-interest-rate environment, elevated U.S. Treasury yields, and a relatively strong dollar continue to constrain upside potential for risk assets. The report also highlights the need to monitor macroeconomic events in August—including the U.S. non-farm payrolls, CPI data, and the Jackson Hole central bank symposium—for their potential impact on market liquidity.