CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin Approaching Bull Market Threshold, Driven by Futures Leverage

Huoxing Finance reports that on September 4, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin is nearing the threshold for entering a bull market. Over the past 24 hours, BTC’s price rose 3.9%, while open interest increased by approximately 11,200 BTC, or 3.4%, indicating that the current upward momentum is primarily driven by the derivatives market. Data shows that open interest surged by 15,200 BTC within six hours, with the leverage flow pressure index rising to 63; during the past 24 hours, long positions increased for 15 hours. Axel noted that if the price rise were primarily fueled by short covering and liquidations, open interest would typically decline—but here it has clearly increased, suggesting that new futures leverage is the main driver of the price surge. His one-year model has not yet officially shifted to a bull market state. Confirmation requires Bitcoin’s daily close above the model’s dynamic threshold, while maintaining that level without rapid deleveraging; the primary risk remains a sudden liquidation of accumulated leverage, potentially triggering a market reversal.